{"id":17199,"date":"2025-06-27T10:12:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T17:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vilni-media.com\/?p=17199"},"modified":"2025-06-28T00:16:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T07:16:06","slug":"litnij-nastup-moskva-jde-va-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vilni-media.com\/en\/2025\/06\/27\/litnij-nastup-moskva-jde-va-bank\/","title":{"rendered":"Moscow Goes All-In on Its Summer Offensive"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vladimir Putin appears increasingly confident that Russia will ultimately prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine as Moscow wages a bloody summer offensive. Just as Putin claimed in his 2021 essay<\/a> that Russians and Ukrainians are \u201cone people\u201d and that Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty hinges on Moscow\u2019s approval, he reiterated<\/a>\u200e in late June: \u201cI\u2019ve said it before, Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours. There\u2019s an old rule that wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that\u2019s ours.\u201d As Moskovsky Komsomolets noted,<\/a> that phrase captured the essence of Putin\u2019s \u201cpolitical faith and long-term strategy.\u201d<\/p>

US President Donald Trump has been repeatedly disregarded<\/a> by the Kremlin, despite issuing vague ultimatums \u2013 often invoking his signature\"two-week\"<\/a>\u200e timeline, which has yielded no tangible results. This isn\u2019t \u201cpeace through strength,\u201d but rather \u201cweakness through appeasement\u201d that Trump has been demonstrating with Russia.<\/p>

The Trump administration has resorted to engaging<\/a> with the Lukashenka regime in Minsk, hoping to revive any momentum with peace talks. To Trump\u2019s credit, he did finally get both sides to start talking to each other. But the message in the meetings from the Russians has been that they are intent on finishing this war and subjugating Ukraine. Vladimir Medinsky<\/a>, Putin\u2019s aide leading the delegation, stated<\/a>, \u201cWe\u2019re prepared to fight forever.\u201d<\/p>

However, Moscow continues to distance itself from peace negotiations<\/a>, instead doubling down on its goal of fully subjugating Ukraine. Russia has nearly 700,000 troops<\/a> inside of Ukraine to support Moscow\u2019s battlefield aims. Since January 2024, Russia has achieved<\/a> less than 1% of Ukrainian territory despite suffering record post-WWII losses.<\/p>

Russia has recently opened a new front in Sumy,<\/a> likely tied to its rhetoric about establishing abuffer zone<\/a>\u200e following Ukraine\u2019s surprise 2024 incursion into Kursk.<\/a> The Institute for the Study of War stated<\/a>\u200e that the Kremlin is also using the pretext of \"buffer zones\" to justify expanding Russia\u2019s territorial ambitions in Ukraine.<\/p>

On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow\u2019s main objective. This is reflected by Russia\u2019s decision to deploy<\/a> its top drone units to the area.<\/p>

Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered<\/a> heavy losses. Recent reportedly<\/a>\u200e reveal increasing numbers of Russians voluntarily surrendering<\/a> to Ukrainians, likely viewing Ukrainian captivity as a better place to be than sent to the meatgrinder<\/a> to die by their commanders. Russian soldiers have been openly commenting<\/a> on Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly \u201clike Jews in Iran,\u201d are without fear and far more accurate than before.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has watched<\/a>\u200e its key ally, Iran, face relentless humiliation, doing nothing to defend it. Instead, Moscow<\/a> has pointed to the fine print of previous agreements to avoid stepping in and to prevent<\/a> \u201cinflated expectations\u201d of Russian support. Still, Russia stands to benefited<\/a> from the surge in oil prices triggered by market turmoil after Israel launched its bombing campaign.<\/p>

Throughout 2025, Ukraine worked on strengthening its expanding\u200e \u201cdrone wall\u201d<\/a>\u200e to contain Russia\u2019s constant\u200e\u200e meatgrinder<\/a>\u200e assaults. Good mining<\/a>, digging new trenches that aren\u2019t in open fields and scaling<\/a> drone production will be key to sustaining the drone wall. This drone wall should continue to evolve into a technological shield<\/a>\u200e to increase the rate of Russian losses and drive down Ukrainian losses.<\/p>

As a result, it has led to the Russians evolving their tactics and how they attempt to probe Ukrainian lines. In Mad Max fashion, the primary vehicle of choice for Russia has become the motorcycle,<\/a> or the 21st-Century Dragoon. A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone. Most of the motorcycles used are Chinese-made,<\/a> such as the Sharmax Sport 280, and are sourced through a mix of state procurement, volunteer networks, and personal purchases.<\/p>

This tactic is costly but calculated. Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian soldier and communications specialist, notes<\/a>\u200e that even if just one in five motorcycle assaults succeeds, the enemy is willing to expend all that human life to sustain its offensives. \u201cThese motor-assault units move fast. Our drone operators and artillery have less time to react,\u201d wrote Solonko.<\/p>

However, Kyiv has recently made critical mistakes that make its drone wall vulnerable. In Russia\u2019s latest offensive near Sumy, Ukraine failed to establish proper fortifications<\/a> \u2013 a recurring issue throughout the war. Without adequate defenses and mining, Russian forces can advance more quickly and make it harder for Ukrainian defenders. Russian KAB guided bombs continue to strike Ukrainian positions at the same rate<\/a>\u200e as they did a year ago.<\/p>

Russia claims<\/a>\u200e that 65% of Ukrainian losses occur during troop rotations or resupply, and 35% on the front line. Fiber-optic<\/a> first-person view (FPV) drones<\/a> make any surface movement within 20km of the front extremely dangerous. However, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine\u2019s Commander-in-Chief, highlighted<\/a>\u200e that Russia is ahead in the fiber-optic drone race \u201cin terms of both quantity and range of application.\u201d<\/p>

The Russians are betting on scale<\/a>, believing that sheer mass and the full mobilization of state resources will ultimately secure victory. The China-Iran-Russia axis is accelerating<\/a> Russia\u2019s technological advancement, with its partnership with Iran<\/a> enabling the domestic production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Chinese companies and the supplies<\/a> that they provide are a key reason why Russia can sustain its war.<\/p>

Russia\u2019s Kalashnikov has also partnered<\/a> with Ushkuynik, a volunteer-run tech accelerator that developed the country\u2019s first fiber-optic drone, to jointly produce drones. The deal reflects a broader shift in Russia\u2019s defense industry toward integrating fast-moving, frontline-tested innovations from startups into mass production, as Moscow pushes for quicker development-to-deployment cycles. In essence, Russia is learning important lessons from the war.<\/p>

\u201cWhile Russia benefits from its ongoing relationship with Iran and China, Ukraine has also demonstrated that it can use its domestic and allied tech to press the Russians in return,\u201d said Samuel Bendett<\/a>, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.<\/p>

Moscow\u2019s war effort leans heavily on its partnership with China, which supplies about 80 percent of the world\u2019s fiber-optic components. \u201cRussia isn\u2019t technically ahead, both sides are ordering the same parts from the same Chinese suppliers,\u201d said Heiner Philipp, an engineer with Technology United for Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>

These wired drones were a key factor in Russia\u2019s success in Kursk. Now, the same strategy is being employed across the front in Ukraine: launch quick assaults using motorcycles, pressure<\/a> Ukrainian flanks, attempt to encircle defenders, and use fiber-optic drones to target incoming Ukrainian logistics and vehicles.<\/p>

Entire forest lines are now covered<\/a> in fiber-optic wires. Now even drones have become effective<\/a> \"anti-sniper\" tools, targeting individuals with high-value equipment like snipers and ATGM operators.<\/p>

As a result of these drone attacks, Ukraine is<\/a> faces an acute shortage of trucks, pickups, and armored transport, which are increasingly destroyed by drones. Volunteer groups and charities have stepped in to supply thousands of vehicles, but demand far outpaces supply.<\/p>

The most practical solution has become to focus efforts on eliminating<\/a> Russian drone pilots. Disrupting drone operations weakens Russian assaults and interferes with enemy command and control.<\/p>

Ukraine\u2019s new Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, \u201cMadyar,\u201d prioritizes targeting<\/a> these operators, awarding 25 points for a kill \u2013 more than for tanks or regular soldiers. Units can trade verified kills for drones and equipment through an online marketplace<\/a>. Russian sources confirmed<\/a>\u200e that under the revised points system, attacks on drone crews, especially fiber-optic FPV operators have intensified. Pilots are being urged to deploy<\/a> decoy antennas on the front.<\/p>

Despite claiming neutrality and supporting peace talks, China is deepening military cooperation with Russia. Ukrainian intelligence data<\/a> that Moscow will host around 600 Chinese military personnel in 2025 to train at Russian bases, learning from Russia\u2019s battlefield experience and focusing on countering Western weaponry. Reuters also previously reported<\/a>\u200e that Chinese military officers have been in Russia, learning from the war in Ukraine.<\/p>

The Kremlin is now also bringing in 25,000 North Korean<\/a> industrial workers to staff drone production lines in Tatarstan, in addition to the thousands of troops that have been fighting in Kursk.<\/p>

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army Major-General stated<\/a>, \u201cThe Russians have a significant advantage over Ukraine in their ability to recruit soldiers, generate forces and replace their casualties.\u201d Both sides are looking abroad to recruit<\/a> more soldiers.<\/p>

But not all is going well for Russian forces<\/a>, which increasingly rely on recruits driven by the promise of cash bonuses \u2013 if they survive. In one gruesome example, leaked audio<\/a> from Ukraine\u2019s military intelligence alleges that a Russian soldier killed and ate his comrade.<\/p>

As long as the West assumes Russia is merely seeking land under the guise of exaggerated security concerns, it will fail to grasp the deeper threat. Moscow is prepared to fight to the end in pursuit of restoring its imperial past, dragging the world backward in the process. In a recent broadcast, one Russian military official openly discussed<\/a> plans to attack NATO over alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in the Baltics and to capture Kharkiv by 2030.<\/p>

But Russia can\u2019t fight on forever and the cracks are growing. The country\u2019s own economy minister recently admitted<\/a>\u200e that Russia is on the brink of recession, as surging war spending collides with inflation, labor shortages, and tight monetary policy.<\/p>

If Trump were to apply real economic pressure, he might break Moscow\u2019s resolve and bring it to the negotiating table. Until then, Russia believes it holds the upper hand and will continue preparing to challenge Europe in a future war.<\/p>

With little to offer its people for the future, the Kremlin instead sells a vision of returning to the supposed glory days of the Russian Empire.

About Author:<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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David Kirichenko<\/a> is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in the Atlantic Council, Center for European Policy Analysis, and The Economist, among many others. He can be found on X\/Twitter @DVKirichenko.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Vladimir Putin appears increasingly confident that Russia will ultimately prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine as Moscow wages a bloody summer offensive. Just as Putin claimed in his 2021 essay that Russians and Ukrainians are \u201cone people\u201d and that Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty hinges on Moscow\u2019s approval...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":253017327,"featured_media":17200,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1457,1514,1503],"tags":[1524],"class_list":["post-17199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-authors","category-david-kirichenko","category-exclusive","tag-david-kirichenko"],"yoast_head":"\n\u041b\u0456\u0442\u043d\u0456\u0439 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