{"id":22300,"date":"2025-10-25T08:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-25T15:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vilni-media.com\/?p=22300"},"modified":"2025-10-25T16:32:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T23:32:47","slug":"chomu-vijna-rosii-proty-ukrainy-tse-pytannia-vyzhyvannia-volodymyra-putina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vilni-media.com\/en\/2025\/10\/25\/chomu-vijna-rosii-proty-ukrainy-tse-pytannia-vyzhyvannia-volodymyra-putina\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Russia's War In Ukraine Is About Vladimir Putin\u2019s Survival"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine was never really about NATO expansion or Western security guarantees. It has always been about Vladimir Putin\u2019s imperial ambitions \u2013 and his personal survival.<\/p>

NATO has consistently shown no interest in extending membership to Ukraine and neither have Ukrainians for most of their post-independence history. Indeed, Ukraine was neutral until Russia first invaded in 2014, and, despite Russia\u2019s full-scale second invasion in 2022, NATO still remains skeptical about Ukraine\u2019s accession to the alliance.<\/p>

Russia\u2019s insistence back in late 2021 and more recently on security guarantees for itself is no less of a canard, inasmuch as it knows as well as NATO that the militaries of most alliance members are in no condition to repel drones, not to mention launch an invasion of Russia.<\/p>

Like throughout all its history, the Russian state has always waged war and sought to conquer as a means of sustaining autocratic rule \u2013 a point George Kennan understood when he recommended containing Soviet expansion as a means of undermining the USSR. Unsurprisingly, every Russian ruler has been obsessed with keeping imperial expansion alive. This was as true of the czars as of the Soviets as of Putin. Even Boris Yeltsin, whom the West lionized, hoped to reconstruct the empire by means of the Commonwealth of Independent States.<\/p>

The Kremlin\u2019s goal is total control in Russia and the subjugation of the Ukrainian people, the two ends being mutually supportive. As Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter\u2019s national security advisor, once warned:<\/a> \u201cWithout Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.\u201d<\/p>

For Putin, Ukraine\u2019s independence and democracy pose an existential threat. A free and successful Ukraine exposes the lie at the heart of his regime: that Russia can only be stable under centralized authoritarian control. If Ukrainians can choose a different path, one that is democratic and prosperous, Russians may one day demand the same. And they may take his head for it.<\/p>

Putin\u2019s manipulation of history is thus intended to deny Ukraine\u2019s existence. Central to that misinterpretation\u2013as poor Tucker Carlson learned from Putin\u2019s 30-minute opening rant\u2013is the myth of Muscovy\u2019s origins. Muscovy\u2019s rise in the 1400s was built on the lie that it was the heir to Kyivan Rus. In reality, Rus was a medieval state centered on Kyiv that had collapsed under Mongol invasions long before Moscow emerged. Muscovite rulers rewrote history to claim this legacy, using the myth to justify conquest. Putin repeats the same fabrication today to deny Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and legitimize his war.<\/p>

The roots of Putin\u2019s obsession with Ukraine trace back to at least 2004, when Ukraine faced a defining presidential contest. Barred from a third term, President Leonid Kuchma sought a loyal successor and backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, a regional strongman from Donetsk. Reformist Viktor Yushchenko, a former central banker and brief prime minister, offered the opposite: a Ukraine oriented toward Europe and democracy.<\/p>

The 2004 Orange Revolution<\/a> upended the Kremlin\u2019s plans. Mass protests against election fraud propelled Yushchenko into office despite Moscow\u2019s heavy-handed interference. This was more than a defeat for Russia\u2019s preferred candidate \u2013 it was a humiliation for Putin and a direct challenge to his worldview.<\/p>

From that moment forward, Moscow\u2019s foreign policy hardened<\/a>The Kremlin recast democracy as a threat, Russian hyper-nationalism as a necessity<\/a>, and military aggression as a tool of survival. Putin began railing against so-called \u201ccolor revolutions,\u201d seeing in them not just Ukraine\u2019s defiance but a dangerous template that Russians themselves might someday follow.<\/p>

In 2008, Georgia was the initial target of the imperial whiplash for Putin as Russian forces attacked the country. That same year, Putin claimed to then-US President George W. Bush that Ukraine<\/a> wasn\u2019t a real country.<\/p>

Yet another formative trauma came in 2011. While serving as prime minister, Putin watched the NATO-led intervention in Libya and the brutal death of Muammar Gaddafi<\/a>He reportedly replayed Gaddafi\u2019s gruesome death, convinced that strongmen who compromise with the West seal their own fate. For him, Gaddafi\u2019s mistake was not tyranny but openness.<\/p>

The massive street protests<\/a> in Moscow in 2011-2012, sparked by anger over electoral fraud, only reinforced this fear, convincing Putin that democratic movements could one day threaten his grip on power inside Russia.<\/p>

And then came the full-scale invasion of recalcitrant Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Perhaps Putin, now in his 70s, believed he was running out of time to conquer Ukraine. The 2014 Euromaidan revolution and the rebuilding of Ukraine\u2019s army convinced him that his window of opportunity was closing.<\/p>

Yet today he seems to believe time is once again on his side \u2013 not only on the battlefield, but in life itself. Caught on a hot mic in Beijing discussing<\/a> organ transplants and biotechnology with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Putin mused about the possibility of living well past 100. Convinced he has decades left, he may see Ukraine not as a fleeting gamble, but as a generational quest he still has years to complete to restore the empire.<\/p>

But Putin now faces a problem at home: the growing disgruntlement of the Russian people, only a quarter of whom want to continue with the war. Although many are profiting from the war, with even a new middle class emerging from Russia\u2019s militarized economy (dubbed \u201cDeathonomics\u201d<\/a>), most average Russians are experiencing a drop in living standards due to Putin\u2019s neglect of the consumer economy. To make things worse, even the militarized economy has stopped growing, as the deficit and inflation increase and Russia is poised to enter a period of stagflation.<\/p>

Putin understands that his political survival is increasingly pegged to constant confrontation<\/a> with the West. And if many elites are profiting<\/a> from the war, why would they want it to stop?<\/p>

Allowing the war to continue keeps Russia in a constant state of mobilization, where dissent is crushed and rivals are killed. The bloated military-industrial complex sustains supports<\/a> networks for loyal<\/a> elites.<\/p>

At the same time, the war strengthens Putin\u2019s ideological<\/a> narrative of rebuilding a Russian empire and confronting a West that he claims<\/a>\u200e seeks to contain it. Until the empire is defeated, Putin will keep coming back for more, his appetite for escalation growing as the economy falters and his legitimacy and authority come under threat.<\/p>

If the Trump administration continues pressing for a peace deal without real leverage, it plays directly into Putin\u2019s hands. A bad peace deal will invite future aggression and be a shot in the arm of Russian imperialism and autocracy. Ukraine won\u2019t be Putin\u2019s last target.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

About Authors:<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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David Kirichenko<\/a> is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in the Atlantic Council, Center for European Policy Analysis, and The Economist, among many others. He can be found on X\/Twitter @DVKirichenko.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Alexander J. Motyl<\/strong><\/a> is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as \u201cImperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires\u201d and \u201cWhy Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.\u201d<\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine was never really about NATO expansion or Western security guarantees. It has always been about Vladimir Putin\u2019s imperial ambitions \u2013 and his personal survival...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":253017327,"featured_media":22304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1457,1514,1503],"tags":[1524],"class_list":["post-22300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-authors","category-david-kirichenko","category-exclusive","tag-david-kirichenko"],"yoast_head":"\n\u0427\u043e\u043c\u0443 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