{"id":22635,"date":"2025-11-02T10:04:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-02T18:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vilni-media.com\/?p=22635"},"modified":"2025-11-02T17:08:56","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T01:08:56","slug":"oblychchiam-do-ukrainy-iakym","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vilni-media.com\/en\/2025\/11\/02\/oblychchiam-do-ukrainy-iakym\/","title":{"rendered":"FACING UKRAINE? WHICH FACE?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Finally Trump turned his face toward Ukraine! He imposed sanctions on the largest \u201cpurses\u201d of Russian aggression \u2014 Lukoil and Rosneft!<\/p>

Should we rejoice?<\/p>

Sanctions \u201cDanylo didn\u2019t die \u2014 the illness choked him\u201d?<\/strong><\/h3>

A number of events that took place throughout October led many political scientists to the opinion that at last U.S. President Donald Trump stopped luring the Russian dictator with flattery and lucrative deals and, having become convinced that these do not work on him, resorted to carrying out his threats to apply the \u201cstick.\u201d Having once again become convinced that the top Russian leadership continues to lead him by the nose and does not budge from its demands, Trump delivered a triple blow.<\/p>

First, he provided Ukraine with \u2014 although not \u201cTomahawks\u201d \u2014 other long-range weapons. Second, he removed, albeit indirectly, the prohibition on striking Russian military targets with that weapon. \u201cSince we sell NATO weapons, we do not care where they are used,\u201d Trump said. Third, on October 22 the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on the Russian energy corporations Lukoil and Rosneft.\u00a0<\/p>

The wording regarding the sanctions is important, so I will quote the treasury press release in full.<\/a><\/p>

\u201cToday the U.S. Department of the Treasury\u2019s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is imposing additional sanctions because of Russia\u2019s lack of serious commitment to a peaceful process to end the war in Ukraine. Today\u2019s actions increase pressure on Russia\u2019s energy sector and degrade the Kremlin\u2019s ability to generate revenue for its war machine and to support its weakened economy. The United States will continue to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the war, and a durable peace depends entirely on Russia\u2019s willingness to engage in good-faith negotiations. The Department of the Treasury will continue to use its authorities to support the peace process.<\/p>

\u2018Now is the time to stop the killing and to call for an immediate ceasefire,\u2019 said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. \u2018Given President Putin\u2019s refusal to end this senseless war, the U.S. Department of the Treasury is imposing sanctions on the two largest Russian oil companies that finance the Kremlin\u2019s war machine. The Department of the Treasury stands ready to take additional actions, if necessary, to support President Trump\u2019s efforts to end another war. We call on our allies to join us and to uphold these sanctions.\u2019\u201d<\/p>

As before, there is no explicit designation of the Russian Federation as the aggressor, but it is clearly recognized that peace \u201cdepends entirely\u201d on the Russian side. The sanctions are aimed at reducing funding both for the Kremlin\u2019s \u201cwar machine\u201d directly and \u2014 more generally \u2014 for Russia\u2019s already \u201cweakened economy.\u201d It is also emphasized that the Treasury \u201cstands ready to take additional actions\u201d if these prove insufficient.\u00a0<\/p>

The press release lists by name numerous subsidiaries of these companies that are also subject to sanctions. So, supposedly, the breath has been cut off for two giants that were among the main sources of financing the aggressive war?<\/p>

Are the sanctions capable of working in full?<\/strong><\/h3>

In fact, it is not so simple, because an immediate halt of all operations with the named companies would lead to a spike in prices for petroleum products, including gasoline at U.S. pumps. Therefore, in order to mitigate the impact on the American and world markets, the U.S. Treasury issued licenses for some<\/a> of Lukoil\u2019s operations until November 21, 2025, in particular for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and the Tengizchevroil project.<\/p>

A significantly more serious obstacle to the sanctions will be the fact that a buyer for Lukoil\u2019s assets outside Russia has already been found \u2014 the Gunvor corporation, in which a majority stake belongs to the friend of the Russian dictator Gennady Timchenko.<\/p>

For Rosneft\u2019s assets in Germany, the U.S. has made an exception to the sanctions at least until April.<\/p>

The most important buyers of Russian energy \u2014 China and India \u2014 although forced to somewhat reduce their operations with these companies, will far from completely stop them.<\/p>

However, the greatest resistance to the sanctions will be posed by China \u2014 the main buyer of Russian energy at preferential prices.<\/p>

The Chinese factor<\/strong><\/h3>

CNN conducted<\/a>a detailed analysis of how painful the new sanctions will be, given that the main buyers of Russian energy are China and India. Here are the essential theses:<\/p>

Both countries face a multi-meaning choice: on the one hand, they depend on discounted Russian energy and have established ties with Russia; on the other hand, they also depend on the U.S. market, since President Trump has already imposed tariffs on India and China and may increase them if he decides that these countries are not complying with the sanctions regime.<\/p>

Both states skillfully circumvent sanctions through a network of \u201cintermediaries\u201d in third countries.<\/p>

So far, the so-called Russian \u201cshadow fleet\u201d has not been defeated (although the U.S., Britain and the EU have already blacklisted hundreds of ships of this \u201cfleet\u201d).<\/p>

\u201cMost of this sanctioned oil will end up on the opaque Chinese market and\/or be \u2018washed\u2019 through trade tricks,\u201d said Seigle, an expert in strategic studies.<\/p>

CNN quotes one of the many experts it interviewed \u2014 Clayton Seigle, head of the Energy and Geopolitics division at the Center for Strategic and International Studies \u2014 as the summary of the entire analysis:<\/p>

\u201cMost of this sanctioned oil will end up on the \u2018opaque Chinese market and\/or be \u2018washed\u2019 through trade tricks,\u2019 Seigle said, an expert in strategic studies. \u2018These workarounds will still hit Moscow\u2019s revenues,\u2019 he said, because hiding in the shadows is more expensive. The biggest X factor is not what oil traders will do, but what Washington will do to enforce the law,\u2019\u201d Seigle said.<\/p>

These conclusions were confirmed by Trump\u2019s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the ASEAN summit in Seoul on October 30. The meeting was fairly short \u2014 in total 1 hour 40 minutes, including interpretation, so the \u201cclean\u201d conversation lasted about an hour. It is clear that if the Russia\u2013Ukraine war was mentioned at all, it was in the context of a much broader U.S.\u2013China agenda: from the fentanyl black market that China supplies to the U.S. to trade relations in which both sides are interdependent and intertwined.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

In particular, in response to the trade war that Trump launched with China in April, Beijing refused to buy soy from American farmers. These farmers make up a significant portion of the Republican Party\u2019s core electoral base. Tariffs on imported Chinese goods \u2014 from consumer goods to critical components of American electronic devices and modern weaponry \u2014 hit end buyers with price increases.<\/p>

As a result of the meeting, Trump and Xi agreed to forgo mutually economically harmful actions. Trump will impose only 47% tariffs instead of 100%, and China will resume purchases of American soy. The trade war was postponed for a year. Of course, energy supplies were included in this truce: Trump refused to impose sanctions on China\u2019s purchase of Russian oil and gas.<\/p>

Thus, even when Trump seems to have moved to carry out his threats to strangle the Russian economy, the mechanisms of the global market are able to significantly weaken the impact of the purportedly imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, although the blow will be quite felt.<\/p>

Escalation of military confrontation<\/strong><\/h3>

In response to Trump\u2019s policy shift, Russia conducted a demonstrative test of the long-range cruise missile \u201cBurevestnik,\u201d which runs on nuclear fuel and is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. According to numerous Russian media, this missile is allegedly capable of flying 14,000 km \u2014 it landed in Kamchatka. However, experts call this \u201cwonder-weapon\u201d a \u201cflying Chernobyl,\u201d because it leaves a radioactive trail along its trajectory, and if it crashes it would cause an environmental catastrophe.<\/p>

\u00a0In a bold act by the Russians, Trump stated: \u201cWe don\u2019t even have to launch missiles that far to reach Russia \u2014 our two submarines are already off its shores. And let Putin focus his efforts on achieving peace, not on missile tests.\u201d<\/p>

As if in response, Russia tested the underwater drone \u201cPoseidon,\u201d which operates on nuclear energy. According to data from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, this weapon is capable of \u201ccreating radioactive waves in the ocean that would make coastal cities uninhabitable,\u201d note<\/a> Arpan Rai and Harriet Boucher, The Independent.\u00a0<\/p>

In addition, one day before Trump\u2019s arrival at the ASEAN summit and his meeting with Xi, North Korea conducted another test of its long-range missile \u2014 likely in response to Trump\u2019s renewed offer to meet Kim Jong Un.\u00a0<\/p>

Directly during his tour, on the eve of the meeting with Xi, Trump ordered the Pentagon to \u201cimmediately resume\u201d testing of the nuclear arsenal.<\/p>

\u201cThe United States has more nuclear weapons than any other country. This was achieved, including with full modernization and reconstruction of existing weapons, during my first term in office. Because of the enormous destructive power I HATED doing it, but I had no choice! Russia ranks second, and China \u2014 third by a large margin, but within 5 years will be on equal footing. Because of testing programs by other countries I instructed the Department of War to begin testing our nuclear weapons on equal terms. This process will begin immediately,\u201d Trump wrote<\/a> on his social network Truth Social.<\/p>

At the same time he spoke in such a way that even experts cannot precisely understand: did the president mean tests of nuclear delivery systems (missiles, launchers) or the resumption of tests of nuclear explosions underground.<\/p>

\u201cFrom Trump\u2019s post it was not immediately clear whether the United States would detonate a nuclear warhead sooner than Russia or China. All three countries \u2014 and other states that possess nuclear weapons \u2014 regularly test their nuclear delivery platforms: Russia recently tested a new cruise missile with a nuclear engine and a nuclear torpedo, and the United States in May conducted a test launch of the Minuteman III nuclear missile,\u201d note Davis Winkle and Swapna Ramaswamy, USA Today.<\/p>

\u201cTrump needs to \u2018clarify what he means\u2019 by \u2018nuclear testing,\u2019\u201d the authors quote Andrea Stricker, a nonproliferation expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. In her view, Trump \u201cmay allow low-yield nuclear tests, which Russia and China may conduct, rather than full-scale tests,\u201d the authors cite the expert.<\/p>

\u201cStricker hypothesized that Trump might seek to begin a new round of arms control negotiations before the expiration of the most recent U.S.\u2013Russia arms control treaty in February 2026,\u201d the authors of the above-cited USA Today article note.<\/p>

Thus, if one means delivery systems, then they are tested continuously; if one means explosions \u2014 that is a direct violation of fundamental treaties on the control of nuclear weapons, concluded between the U.S. and the USSR in 1986 \u2014 on the ban of nuclear tests \u2014 and between the U.S. and Russia \u2014 on strategic offensive arms, signed in 2010, which expires on February 4, 2026. This treaty remains the last agreement between the U.S. and Russia on nuclear control; if it lapses, many experts believe a renewed nuclear arms race between nuclear states could begin \u2014 already at a new technological level and in a different political environment, making such an outcome far more dangerous than during the Cold War. \u00a0<\/p>

All this has led to the resumption of discussions that have not taken place for 33 years \u2014 since the collapse of the USSR, when it seemed that the Cold War had ended forever.<\/p>

\u201cTrump\u2019s decision to resume nuclear testing in the United States faces domestic criticism, as well as a sharp warning that it could lead to escalation,\u201d notes<\/a> Harriet Boucher, The Independent, and provides examples.<\/p>

Thus, Dina Titus, a Democratic member of Congress from Nevada, stated: she intends to introduce legislation to put an end to this.<\/p>

Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association think tank, said that the U.S. would need at least three years to restore controlled underground nuclear testing at the former test site in Nevada.<\/p>

\u201cTrump is misinformed and detached from reality. The U.S. has no technical, military, or political reasons to resume nuclear detonations for the first time since 1992,\u201d Boucher quotes Kimball\u2019s post on social network X.<\/p>

He added that Trump\u2019s statement could \u201ctrigger a chain reaction of nuclear tests by U.S. adversaries and undermine the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,\u201d Boucher notes.<\/p>

The UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres condemned attempts to revive the nuclear arms race: \u201cWe must never forget the catastrophic legacy of more than 2,000 nuclear tests carried out over the past 80 years. Nuclear testing can never be permitted under any circumstances\u201d (quoted in the cited article). \u00a0<\/p>

According to estimates by the Federation of American Scientists as of March 2025, \u201cRussia has 5,459 deployed and non-deployed nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,177. Together this is about 87% of the world\u2019s nuclear weapons,\u201d notes Emma Burrous, Associated Press.<\/p>

Against the backdrop of these talks, threats and sanctions, Russia has significantly intensified strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukrainian cities, on thermal power plants and substations. Every day, massive Russian bombardments by drones and missiles kill or maim Ukrainian civilians, including children.<\/p>

Russia has also stepped up provocative actions toward NATO countries: drones without identification markings constantly violate the airspace of the Baltic states, prompting NATO countries to discuss how to respond; Belarus also participates in provocations, launching across the border to Lithuania aerial balloons either with contraband cigarettes or so-called \u201cmeteorological\u201d balloons. Both types of provocations, besides stirring NATO, quite likely conduct reconnaissance, strengthening suspicions that Russia is preparing for a clash with NATO, most likely in the form of a new type of hybrid warfare.<\/p>

However, at the same time as the escalation of threats toward Russia, Trump ordered a reduction of the U.S. troop contingent in Romania.<\/p>

This decision was made by the White House \u201ceven though Russian drones and aircraft continue to probe NATO airspace,\u201d notes<\/a> Gerdana Krasteva, the British publication Metro.<\/p>

\u201cPlans were announced by the U.S. to reduce the number of its troops in Romania, a critically important buffer zone against Russian aggression. This includes troops that were to be stationed at Mihail Kog\u0103lniceanu Air Base, which is strategically important due to its proximity to Ukraine,\u201d the author emphasizes. A U.S. contingent of 1,000 service members will remain in Romania.<\/p>

Such a spiral of threats, demonstrative actions, displays of weaponry on the verge of direct confrontation between two states with the largest nuclear arsenals \u2014 allegedly under their control \u2014 is dangerous primarily because of the high probability of a loss of control due to error and miscalculation (as already happened with the Russian dictator \u2014 his security services miscalculated Ukrainians\u2019 capability and will to resist and the West\u2019s reaction to a brazen violation of international laws on inviolability of borders). The \u201cduel\u201d of enormously inflated egos of both Putin and Trump against the existential problem of Ukraine\u2019s existence as a state threatens the possibility of misreading intentions, steps, and actions of the two world giants, and this brings the threat of a third world war closer than ever before.\u00a0<\/p>

Is Trump driving himself \u2014 and his country, and the world \u2014 into a dead end?<\/strong><\/h3>

Difficulties in foreign policy \u2014 caused both by the global economy and by the confrontation between democratic and autocratic camps \u2014 are only one side of the development of events. Unfortunately, the likelihood of escalation is further enhanced by developments inside the U.S.: there the course of events is becoming increasingly acute \u2014 at first glance disparate \u2014 which together corner Trump himself, and along with him the U.S. and the world.<\/p>

The totality of these events, it seems to me, can be defined as the \u201cTrump spiral.\u201d I have already had to explain what is meant: the ongoing escalation of mutual enmity between Trump and his supporters, on the one hand, and his opponents, on the other. This cold civil war began on the first day of Trump\u2019s first term and has only intensified since.<\/p>

It is caused both by deep changes in American society that lead to its progressively deeper split into extreme left and extreme right political sectors, and by Trump\u2019s policies, which further amplify the split.<\/p>

In particular, Trump\u2019s constant appeals to the Russian dictator beginning with his first speeches in 2016 caused unprecedented suspicions about his almost secret ties with Russian agents (and partly this is justified, which can be discussed in more detail in a separate article). Such suspicions led to an investigation of possible Russian interference in the 2016 election by Special Counsel Robert Mueller; subsequent actions against Trump led to the 2018 impeachment. Trump responded to these actions by opponents with unprecedented actions for the U.S.: he began to spin a theory of his personal \u201cpolitical persecution\u201d as a result of alleged \u201cpersonal animosity\u201d and actions by the Democratic Party, which, with the help of some \u201cdeep state,\u201d \u201cpoliticized\u201d all intelligence services and the FBI against him.<\/p>

Despite all the absurdity, these theories found resonance, which gave him the opportunity to create a circle of almost blindly loyal people of varying qualifications and professions, including among intelligence officers (but also among the presenters of his loyal channel FOX). He also promoted a theory that looks even more absurd against the background of American democratic history: about alleged mass falsifications in the 2020 election. Despite more than 60 lost court cases regarding those elections, he continued to claim \u201cstolen elections,\u201d which led to the January 6, 2021 riot.<\/p>

It is clear that the lost election provided opponents with the opportunity to punish Trump and the rioters \u2014 they were convicted, and Trump was hit with a whole series of legal cases. He again turned to statements about \u201cpolitical persecutions\u201d of him.<\/p>

The incredible happened again: despite everything, he was elected again! Now he has come much more armed, because with him is his loyal team, and he already knows how to act.<\/p>

He needs to create an impregnable shield against possible new persecutions. For this:<\/p>

\u2022\treplace all obvious and probable opponents with his loyalists in all government agencies;<\/p>

\u2022\tsqueeze all political opponents, from the entire Democratic Party to opponents within the Republican Party. Punish demonstratively everyone who \u201cpersecuted\u201d him.<\/p>

But in the U.S. system this means destroying the very democratic foundations: the independence of the legislative and judicial branches; the system of checks and balances; protection of minority interests, which, though having lost the election, still make up almost half of the U.S. population; protection of minority rights and fundamental rights guaranteed by the Constitution.<\/p>

The checks and balances system does not cease resistance, because defeat would mean the end of the U.S. as a democratic state, turning it at minimum into a state where democracy is limited to the interests of the victorious majority, which brings this state closer to a \u201ctyranny of the majority.\u201d The spiral spins ever more sharply.<\/p>

All this occurs against the background of the further development of complex processes that deepen the American society\u2019s split into extreme left and extreme right.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

I will cite only one example.<\/p>

Thus, the U.S. Department of Justice initiated criminal proceedings against former National Security Advisor from Trump\u2019s first term John Bolton, the New York City Attorney General Letitia James, and former FBI Director James Comey. Bolton was officially informed of suspicion of violating laws on the protection of documents containing state secrets. James and Comey were indicted by grand juries: James is charged with mortgage fraud; Comey \u2014 with lying to Congress.<\/p>

All the accused are Trump\u2019s political enemies. Bolton, having worked as an advisor and seen the Trump White House from the inside, wrote the book The Room Where It Happened, which became popular in political and political-science circles \u2014 a cautionary book about the dangers to the U.S. and to the international system of democracies that Trump has already caused and may yet cause.<\/p>

However, U.S. jurisprudence provides means to counter political persecution \u2014 laws against \u201cselective\u201d and \u201cvindictive\u201d justice. These are not epithets but legal terms, and if the defense of the accused can prove in court that the charges have at least one of these two motives, the case is closed.\u00a0<\/p>

\u201cCharges brought against political opponents of President Donald Trump after his public call to Attorney General Pam Bondi to hold his likely enemies accountable raise an alarming question: if the Department of Justice is no more than the president\u2019s obedient lapdog, is anyone in America ultimately protected from its teeth?<\/p>

There is one obvious legal defense for former FBI Director James Comey, New York Attorney General Letitia James or anyone else the Department of Justice has pressed at Trump\u2019s behest: claims of vindictive or selective prosecution, which can lead to full dismissal of cases by judges. Historically these claims rarely succeed. But Trump\u2019s behavior so exceeds permissible bounds that it could actually help those he targets,\u201d notes<\/a> Brandy Bachman, The Huffington Post.\u00a0<\/p>

Even Trump\u2019s proclaimed and broadly supported fight against \u201cillegal immigrants who committed serious crimes\u201d acquires a sharp political coloring, because a component of the \u201cstolen elections\u201d theory is unfounded claims about alleged \u201cillegals\u201d who \u201cvoted for the Democrats.\u201d This is nonsense in general, because only U.S. citizens registered as voters have the right to participate in presidential elections; even permanent residents with green cards do not have this right.<\/p>

However, in my view, it is precisely this destructive theory that pushed Trump to turn the legitimate fight against criminal elements, including among undocumented immigrants (yes, deportation), into a genuine war against immigrants in general \u2014 a war in which, supposedly in the name of upholding the law, other, no less fundamental laws are brazenly disregarded (illegal arrests, brutal treatment, deployment of the National Guard in cities, etc.).<\/p>

Thus, the struggle for America\u2019s near future continues \u2014 will the democratic system be preserved. But it is this very system that threatens Trump personally. If in 2026 Democrats win the midterm elections to Congress, he will not avoid a new impeachment, or at least a new \u201cpolitical\u201d prosecution \u2014 increasingly justified each time.<\/p>

This forces Trump to take ever more destructive measures against democracy. What the outcome of the unfolding \u201cTrump spiral\u201d will be, no one can predict at present. Its endings could be many, and all will fall within the broadest range: from the victory of democracy as a system in the U.S. (which, in my view, would require painful compromises regarding both Trump\u2019s further fate and the U.S. political order) and in the world (in which case the chance of victory for Ukraine would significantly increase) \u2014 to... World War III. In such a war, the question of democracies would no longer stand at all, because it would threaten the total destruction of at least large states.\u00a0<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

About Author:<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Nadiya Banchyk<\/a> \u2014 journalist, author of analytical reviews, and analyst of socially significant events in the United States. An active member of the Ukrainian-American women\u2019s movement and a \u201cSoyuzianka\u201d \u2014 a member of the UNWLA (Ukrainian National Women\u2019s League of America) in San Jose, California.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Finally Trump turned his face toward Ukraine! He imposed sanctions on the largest \u201cpurses\u201d of Russian aggression \u2014 Lukoil and Rosneft!\nShould we rejoice?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":253017327,"featured_media":22636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1457,1503,1504],"tags":[1528],"class_list":["post-22635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-authors","category-exclusive","category-nadiya-banchyk","tag-nadiya-banchyk"],"yoast_head":"\n\u041e\u0411\u041b\u0418\u0427\u0427\u042f\u041c \u0414\u041e \u0423\u041a\u0420\u0410\u0407\u041d\u0418? 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