The US between Ukraine and Europe: security guarantees, reconstruction and the risk of strategic retreat

Kyiv claims that agreements with the US and the formation of a long-term security architecture together with the West are almost ready. In parallel, the parameters of the peace plan, economic recovery and possible mechanisms for its approval are being discussed. Western experts and military officials are paying attention to the contradictory signals from Washington regarding the role of Europe. At the same time, Moscow, according to analysts and Ukrainian officials, does not demonstrate readiness for real compromises.

Budanov: Russia is forming a “strategic reserve” for a potential war against other states

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, saidthat Russia’s interference in the airspace of NATO and European countries is demonstrative in nature and is part of information pressure. 

According to him, such actions are aimed at both the Russian Federation’s internal audience and the external partners of the states that are directly affected. 

Budanov stressed that the Kremlin is trying to create a sense of constant threat, forcing the international community to react. 

At the same time, he noted that these steps should not be automatically perceived as immediate preparations for an invasion of NATO countries.

The head of the GUR also reported that Russia is already forming a so-called “strategic reserve” for potential future wars against other states. At the same time, he emphasized that while a full-scale war against Ukraine is ongoing, this reserve remains limited in capabilities. 

“Strategically, it is being formed, but it has not yet acquired the capabilities that the Russians dream of,” Budanov noted. 

According to him, a war on two fronts is currently impossible for Russia, since historical experience shows the catastrophic consequences of such a scenario.

US offers 15-year security guarantees, Zelensky tells Axios

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also reportedthat the United States has offered Ukraine security guarantees for a period of 15 years. He said this in a telephone interview with Axios. 

Zelensky noted that most of the provisions of the bilateral agreements between Ukraine and the United States have already been agreed upon and recorded in five documents, to which one more may be added. According to him, these documents are generally ready, although some technical points remain.

One of such points is the term of the security guarantees, which, in Zelensky’s opinion, should be longer. 

“I think we need more than 15 years,” the president said, adding that he would consider it a great success if Donald Trump supported this position. 

Zelensky also stated his readiness to put the peace plan to a referendum if it requires difficult decisions, in particular regarding territories. 

At the same time, he said, a ceasefire of at least 60 days is necessary for such a referendum.

The Kremlin announced new “contacts” with the United States

The Kremlin announced that after the return of the Russian special representative Kirill Dmitriev from Miami, new contacts took place between the Russian and American sides. This was also reported by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, noting that Dmitriev reported to Vladimir Putin on the results of his negotiations in the United States.

According to him, the information received was analyzed, after which, on Putin’s instructions, contact took place between representatives of the administrations of the two countries. According to Peskov, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov and representatives of the White House participated in these negotiations.

Peskov also said that the parties agreed to continue the dialogue. He emphasized that the Kremlin “analyzed” all the information provided by Dmitriev, in particular regarding the discussions on a peace agreement regarding Ukraine. 

“After Dmitriev reported on the results of his trip to America… on Putin’s instructions, contact took place,” the Kremlin spokesman said. 

However, the Russian side did not provide any details about the content of these contacts or their possible results.

Zelensky named areas of cooperation with the US for post-war reconstruction

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also reportedthat Ukraine and the US plan to create several funds for the country’s post-war reconstruction. 

According to him, these are the Ukraine Reconstruction Fund, a sovereign investment platform, a development fund, a growth and opportunity fund, as well as the US-Ukrainian reconstruction investment fund. 

The creation of a human capital fund and support for the return of citizens is being discussed separately. Zelensky stressed that these mechanisms should become the basis for long-term cooperation between Kyiv and Washington.

He also noted that the key document for post-war development will be the “Roadmap” to prosperity by 2040. 

“The main aspects and directions there are our national goals,” the president explained, mentioning indicators of life expectancy, refugee return, GDP per capita and job creation. 

Zelensky also said that Ukraine expects to attract $700-800 billion for reconstruction. In addition, he reported on five key topics that will be discussed with the United States that day, including security guarantees, the military dimension and a plan of sequential actions.

The President also stressed that Ukraine supported Trump's ceasefire proposal and is ready for compromises set out in the 20-point plan. 

"Ukraine is doing everything it can to stop this war," he stated.

According to him, without sufficient support from the United States and Europe, it will be difficult to achieve a lasting peace.

The United States is effectively leaving Europe alone with the Russian threat, - General Hodges

Retired American General Ben Hodges saidthat the new US national security strategy contains an alarming signal for Europe. 

In an interview with the Studio West program, he noted that the document demonstrates a change in Washington's global priorities. According to him, the strategy creates the impression that Europe is left alone in the face of the Russian threat. The general believes that this may mean a decrease in the US role in deterring Russia on the European continent.

"The national security strategy... looks like a big middle finger towards Europe," Hodges said. 

He noted that the US clearly defines the Western Hemisphere as its sphere of interest, citing policies toward Venezuela, Greenland, and Canada as examples. 

According to him, the reorganization of the Pentagon and the redistribution of military resources confirm this approach. Hodges also emphasized that against this background, the question remains to what extent the United States will continue to be truly committed to NATO principles.

Photo: 24tv.ua 

Author: Danylo Pievchev

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