Russia continues to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of missiles for Patriot batteries, which are needed to intercept ballistic missiles. Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv for several days in a row—and the threat was specifically ballistic. Another problem is the modified Zircon anti-ship missiles, which are even less accurate than Russia’s ballistic missiles and can also be intercepted primarily by American missile defense systems.
During his latest visit to Washington, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with his American counterpart, Donald Trump, about assistance. Although Zelenskyy himself described the conversation as very good, its actual results appear disappointing. Trump even cast doubt on his own proposal to allow Ukraine to manufacture missiles for Patriot systems. As for supplying missiles that already exist, the situation appears even more difficult. As is known, the US military itself used an enormous number of these missiles during Operation Epic Fury, meaning that US stockpiles leave much to be desired.
Moreover, Donald Trump still cannot decide what course of action to take in the conflict with Iran and changes his mind about the possibility of another attack almost daily. But we must understand that if the American president decides to intensify the strikes, this will lead to another massive use of anti-ballistic interceptors. And the problem is not even that you and I understand this. The problem is that the US military and Donald Trump himself understand it perfectly well. They may fear that, following a new stage of the war, the United States could be left virtually defenseless in the event of a possible conflict with China over Taiwan, for example. Or with Russia, should the Kremlin decide to escalate in Europe and attack NATO. In such a situation, how can the United States transfer the 300 missiles Zelenskyy discussed with Trump when American arsenals themselves contain no more than 900? This is despite the fact that American manufacturers still produce no more than 800 missiles for Patriot batteries annually—a figure that clearly does not meet the demands of modern warfare.
This figure also demonstrates that, under any circumstances, there will never be more anti-ballistic interceptors than ballistic missiles. This means that, under any circumstances, some Russian missiles will inevitably reach their targets and strike residential neighborhoods in Ukrainian cities. So what is the solution?
Zelenskyy also discussed this solution with Trump: the possibility of striking the sites where ballistic missiles are produced and launched inside Russia. As for the launch sites, this proposition seems strange, because these are mobile launchers that constantly change location. But the factories producing ballistic missiles are another matter entirely: striking them would seriously undermine Russia’s capabilities. Understanding how to carry out an effective strike—one that does not merely produce footage of a fire for Telegram channels, but actually halts production—is indeed an important task.
But this decision cannot be made without Elon Musk—and the billionaire is in no hurry to make it. In Musk’s worldview, assisting Ukraine on its own territory should not create a serious conflict for him with the Kremlin, whereas providing information concerning Russian territory itself would.
It is important to convince Musk that this is merely his personal view of the world and has nothing to do with reality. A billionaire who provided Ukrainians with access to his satellite service and disabled it for the Russians is already an enemy of Russia. This, of course, would not prevent Putin from reaching some agreement with him should the need arise. Any new decision by Musk would no longer fundamentally change Moscow’s attitude toward him.
I do not know why the Ukrainian military cannot strike ballistic missile production facilities without Musk’s assistance—they manage without his information when targeting oil-refining facilities. But I will not argue the point here; a discussion on this subject is a matter for professionals. Nevertheless, the main point is obvious to me: Ukraine needs anti-ballistic defenses, its own ballistic missiles, and the destruction of Russia’s ballistic missile capabilities.
And within this triad, destroying Russia’s ballistic missile capabilities is the most important element. Otherwise, Putin will continue systematically turning Ukrainian cities into ruins throughout the next stage of this brutal war.
Author: Vitaly Portnikov
