Retired General Keith Kellogg, whom President-elect Donald Trump plans to nominate as the special envoy for russian-Ukrainian conflict resolution, is soon to embark on a trip to “gather information” in Kyiv and various European capitals. It is notable, however, that the person who is expected to tackle the task of ending the russian-Ukrainian war does not yet know if he will be invited to Moscow. General Kellogg, of course, is prepared to travel and engage in discussions – but russia’s willingness remains uncertain. At least, this is suggested by recent statements from the russian leader. vladimir putin seems to relish the war, referring to it with the simple and “safe” term dvizhukha (a lively hustle or activity) – or at least pretends to enjoy it. So, why would he need General Kellogg at all?
However, the very fact of the future envoy’s trip refutes the conspiracy theory that Trump’s and putin’s teams had prearranged everything and are merely waiting for the inauguration of the new U.S. president to reveal the outcomes of their agreements. A more plausible assertion is that Donald Trump, even before the U.S. presidential election, had his own vision for how to end this truly horrific war. Yet, this vision still relies on the belief that both Zelensky and putin will heed his approach. It is widely understood what leverage an American president typically has over Ukraine’s president. However, few can now explain what new tools Trump might wield when dealing with russia’s president. And the most critical question remains: does Donald Trump himself know?
There won’t be much for Keith Kellogg to gather in the capitals he plans to visit. In Kyiv, he will hear calls for a just peace and requests for new weaponry. In European capitals, American representatives will be told that the deployment of European troops to Ukraine is not ruled out, alongside questions about how President Trump intends to secure a freeze in the conflict. If Kellogg makes it to Moscow, he won’t face any surprises there either. His russian counterparts will speak of their “security concerns,” complain about the West’s deceitfulness, and argue that Ukraine is an artificial state. Frankly, I could outline the content of Kellogg’s negotiations in Kyiv, Moscow, London, or Paris right now—there’s no need for him to travel or gather any information. Unless, of course, he simply wishes to simulate activity, which would be well-received in Trump’s office.
But, of course, the most important question is not what the representative of the new U.S. president will hear. It is how to navigate the situation where russia has no intention of ending the war and hopes to destroy Ukraine, while Ukraine is unwilling to capitulate. What strategy will General Kellogg propose to President Trump? Will it involve brokering a conditional agreement that frees Moscow’s hands and absolves Washington of responsibility for what happens next—reminiscent of what occurred in Vietnam, where General Kellogg once fought? Or will it mean continuing to support Ukraine and working together to exhaust russia, so that putin no longer has the resources to wage war?
The answer to this question will determine not only Ukraine’s future but also the future of the United States. Specifically, the future of respect for America’s power and its role in the modern world. If the new president cannot prove that he can defend international law against putin and that he commands respect, it is unlikely that his warnings or threats will be taken seriously in the future.
Author: Vitaly Portnikov