Ukrainian military have once again shared their calculations: Russian losses in manpower have exceeded 980,000 people. The pace at which Vladimir Putin grinds down his own army suggests that already in the first third of the summer the world will hear a psychologically shocking figure – one million killed, wounded and missing Russian invaders. Behind each of them stand families that are increasingly realising that their child, husband or father was sacrificed to the phantoms of “USSR 2.0” and the Kremlin’s pathological fear of losing power. This shock is only preparing for its culmination, but its consequences can no longer be hidden beneath the thick layer of propaganda and media campaigns so deftly juggled by Russian special services on the territory of Western countries. And, very importantly, this shock is neither the only one nor the greatest for the Russian people themselves.
When the news feed pours out daily reports about drones, sanctions and diplomatic ultimatums, one’s hand instinctively reaches for the simplest explanation. Trump is “Putin’s friend,” the EU are “weaklings,” Ukraine is “on the brink of collapse.” These popular clichés are convenient because they relieve us of the responsibility to immerse ourselves in the far more complex mechanisms with which today’s geopolitics is packed. Yet as soon as one digs deeper, the linear picture forces us to ask more and more questions, and the synchronisation of America and Europe on key issues looks more like the actions of a “good cop and bad cop”: Washington keeps the door to negotiations ajar, while Brussels and several capitals keep tightening the sanctions wrench with ever greater force. In the end, Putin and his closest circle find themselves in a stretch position that, amid the imposed frantic dynamics of events, is practically impossible to overcome.
Russia’s actual military situation indicates that the upcoming summer campaign, on which Putin pins so many hopes and pours so many resources, may become the last attempt to wrest at least a symbolic victory. American and European analysts cited by The Washington Post forecast that by 2026 the Kremlin will no longer have either enough soldiers or equipment to break through the Ukrainian defence. Therefore, in the summer of 2025 Moscow will throw into battle everything that remains – and the losses, judging by empirical experience, will reach record levels.
From June 2024 to May 2025 Russia captured only 0.6 % of additional Ukrainian territory but paid about 1,500 killed and wounded per day (sic!), according to U.S. military intelligence. In total, since February 2022 the Russian army has lost more than 10,000 units of armoured vehicles, nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters, and about a dozen ships. In other words, Russian generals are waging an offensive that makes no economic sense: the metres gained cost millions of dollars and thousands of lives, with no prospect of return.
Even if the Ural keeps riveting 200 new tanks a year, dependence on “reactivating” Soviet T-62s and T-72s will inevitably lead to exhaustion. Experts estimate that the 13-thousand-strong mobilisation pool of old machines will be burned up within a few months. However, given the level of corruption in the Russian military industry, those 13 thousand never really existed – the mothballed hardware was stripped for parts, which were then resold through front companies back to their own plants as new spares for repairs, or abroad to third countries. In any case, infantry without protected vehicles turns into moving targets for Ukrainian FPV drones – which is why the front is increasingly freezing in place.
From the financial and economic side, the Kremlin is clipping its own wings. The 2025 budget envisages a large-scale sequestration: cuts to industrial development programmes, aircraft manufacturing and high-tech sectors. Oil and gas are being sold less and less, so the only priority is military expenditure. The civilian economy is forced to switch to starvation rations.
The largest Russian oil and LNG carrier, Sovcomflot, left shareholders without a kopeck of dividends, directing its profits to the budget. The signal is clear: a private investor in the Russian Federation is last in line when the state lacks money to plug holes. This undermines confidence in any Russian assets and deprives the economy of even crumbs of external capital. The danger lies in the fact that Putin maintains power with the help of loyal elites who, in return, receive benefits – most often wealth.
Funding for Russian aircraft construction is being cut by 22 % this year. For an industry already suffocating without imported components, this is a step toward technological degradation. The promised “import substitution” of Airbus and Boeing is turning into a plywood mock-up, and Russian airlines are preparing to write off airframes faster than they can repair them.
While Russia “sews” its budget with white threads, the United States is preparing a bill that would turn it into a trade pariah, and the G7 voices the possibility of lowering the oil price cap to 50 USD per barrel and threatens secondary sanctions on the Kremlin’s partners. The energy noose tightens precisely when Russia’s safety margin is melting away.
In Brussels a legal framework is maturing that sets a zero quota on Russian gas from 2027, giving companies grounds to break contracts without penalties. In parallel, Germany and the European Commission want to mothball Nord Stream 1/2 forever, removing even the hypothetical blackmail by the Russian pipeline from the agenda. This is a reversal of the era when Gazprom dictated prices to the continent.
Even the Kremlin’s internal “Trojan horses” in the EU are receiving warnings. The EU Council is again putting on the agenda the issue of stripping Hungary of its voting rights. Budapest has blocked sanctions and aid to Kyiv for many years, but now risks losing its instrument of blackmail. Thus, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow to use its “tame” little animals-defenders in Western institutions.
At one time, the Biden administration consistently adhered to the strategic approach of strangling Russia’s economy and preserving Ukraine’s defence capability in order eventually to wait for degradation and an internal explosion in the Kremlin. Donald Trump, by contrast, is driven by the fear of World War III, inclining Putin towards short (or at least some) pauses that would allow him to claim a diplomatic victory. Such a soft strategy has had no success and therefore is accompanied by tough statements from Congress and the Senate.
The coordination of actions and unity of behaviour indicate the presence of a more complex combination. After a two-hour telephone conversation between Trump and Putin, the White House spoke of “new trade opportunities with Russia” rather than sanctions. Yet only a few days later Senators Graham and Blumenthal introduced a bill threatening Moscow with the harshest restrictions in history if it disrupts negotiations. That is, even when the U.S. executive branch plays at conciliation, the legislative branch, driven by well-known friends and allies of Trump himself, remains inexorable and resolute.
The Russian state today, although it still splashes around with pseudo-patriotic slogans and attempts to maintain fighting spirit, is slowly and irreversibly crystallising an explosive mixture of demographic losses, budget holes and technological stagnation. The United States and the EU see this better than anyone, waiting until the metastases of sanctions and front-line defeats eat the aggressor from within.
By forcing a summer offensive, Putin will accelerate his own catastrophe. Dozens of RF brigades will be thrown into another “meat grinder,” and hundreds of leading global media outlets will for the first time write about “a million Russians who disappeared for the paranoia of one dictator.” For Ukraine this is a chance to demonstrate that methodical resistance defeats imperial frenzy. There will be no simple solutions, but the simple truth remains: collective endurance, cool calculation and coordinated actions destroy even the most brutal regimes.
In front of our eyes the Colossus with feet of clay is cracking and swaying. Whether it falls this summer will be decided by an equation of three variables: Ukrainian resilience, Western unity and Russian self-destruction. And each of us who drives away the temptation of “simple answers” becomes part of this complex but promising picture.
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