As American attention over Russia’s war in Ukraine waivers, Vladimir Putin is already preparing Russia for future wars against NATO. Talk as of late has been on Russia potentially challenging NATO’s Eastern flank, but Moscow has been actively focusing on rearming and setting the stage for a future war in the Arctic.
Russia now possesses more than three dozen icebreakers, including several nuclear-powered vessels, giving it unmatched mobility in the polar north. The U.S. only has two, but Canada and Denmark have 25 combined. It has upgraded Arctic bases, stationed advanced missile systems across its northern coastline, and resumed regular bomber flights near Alaska.
Meanwhile, joint Russian-Chinese patrols and military drills in the region are becoming routine, signaling a growing axis of Arctic cooperation that NATO cannot afford to ignore. Beijing is deeply interested in the resources the Arctic has to offer, as it considers itself a “near-Arctic” state.
Melting ice is making access to rare earth minerals, energy reserves, and new shipping routes easier – opportunities China is eager to tap into as it expands its global reach.
At the same time, NATO’s Arctic capabilities remain limited. The U.S. has only a handful of aging icebreakers, and many surveillance and missile defense systems in the region are outdated. Canada has just one deepwater port above the Arctic Circle. The military imbalance is growing at a time when melting sea ice is opening up new shipping lanes, resource claims, and potential military flashpoints.
As a result, the U.S. has been sounding the alarm over growing military ties between Russia and China in the Arctic. Both countries have stepped up joint patrols and exercises near Alaska.
A top Pentagon official previously warnedthat China is using research and economic projects to expand its footprint, while Russia continues to pour resources into the region despite its ongoing war in Ukraine.
In July 2024, NORAD intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers flying near Alaska in the first known joint flight by the two countries in that region. The bombers stayed in international airspace but entered the U.S. Air Defense Identification Zone, prompting U.S. and Canadian fighter jets to respond. Kyiv’sSpiderweb operation may have also indirectly benefited Washington by targeting Russian bombers that were also used to patrol near Alaska.
At sea, the Bear Gap, an important maritime corridor near Svalbard, Norway, is a potential chokepoint Russia could use to block NATO naval reinforcements in a future conflict. With Russia expanding its military footprint in the Arctic, NATO should consider collaborating with Ukraine to adapt its sea drone technology, already proven effective in the Black Sea, for Arctic conditions.
Lyuba Shipovich, CEO of Dignitas and the Victory Drones project, said that while a Spiderweb-like operation – such as using sea drones to strike Russia’s port of Murmansk from Arctic waters – is technically feasible, provided the drones are adapted to cold conditions and have communication support like Starlink. But Shipovich also emphasized the legal challenges of such an operation.
Ukraine, she stressed, adheres to international law and would not conduct such an operation without proper legal grounds. However, if a country like Denmark permitted Ukraine to use its territorial waters, then a mission of that nature could potentially be carried out within legal frameworks.
Heorhii Volkov, commander of the drone unit Yasni Ochi ("Clear Eyes") from the 13th Khartiia Brigade, also believes that a complex strike operation in the Arctic region could be achievable. While he acknowledges the logistical complexity, he emphasizes that success hinges on in-depth study of the enemy’s tactics and careful intelligence gathering. By identifying vulnerabilities, operations can be tailored effectively, with the necessary drone technology adapted to suit the mission's demands as needed.
Similarly, the GIUK (Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom) gap is an important naval chokepoint for monitoring and containing Russia’s Northern Fleet. The GIUK gap also hosts crucial subsea fiber optic cables that Russian submarines have been linked to tapping or potentially cutting.
Ukrainian intelligence has also warnedthat Russia is using scientific cover to prepare a military and resource-driven expansion in the Arctic. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Moscow is leveraging its Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute to conduct dual-use expeditions, collecting data on ice, wind, and ocean patterns to support both commercial exploitation and fleet movements. The Kremlin is installing satellite and communications infrastructure to support its Northern Fleet and future drone operations in the region.
Finland, now a NATO member, is already preparing for what comes after Ukraine. Satellite images show Moscow expanding infrastructure near the Finnish border—building tent camps, warehouses, and refurbishing airfields. Though troop levels remain low for now, Finnish intelligence officials believe Russia will redeploy thousands of soldiers to its Arctic frontier once the war in Ukraine winds down.
NATO countries are racing to develop drones that can operate in harsh Arctic conditions, as cold, ice, and snow pose serious challenges to drone operations. While Russia and China have already built and deployed drones suited for freezing climates, NATO is just beginning to catch up, with countries like Finland, Canada, and Norway investing in winter-capable models.
The war in Ukraine has shown how important drones are for modern warfare, but many of the drones used today don’t hold up in extreme Arctic weather. Smaller drones freeze quickly, while only the most expensive models can carry de-icing systems like traditional aircraft. Meanwhile, Russia has made key advances: Zala Aero offers Arctic-ready drones, and the long-range S-70 Okhotnik combat drone, capable of operating in sub-zero conditions, is slated for regional deployment.
The race for military dominance in the Arctic is inseparable from the race for its resources. Melting sea ice is exposing vast reserves of oil, gas, and critical minerals, drawing the attention not only of Moscow and Beijing, but also Washington. It has led to Donald Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland.
But the move backfired diplomatically, pushing many Greenlanders to distance themselves from the US. Greenland’s foreign minister recently signaled interest in deepening ties with China, including the possibility of a free trade agreement.
Greenland’s strategic value extends beyond its location, it’s also rich in untapped resources. “There are massive assets of natural resources around in Greenland,” said Maria Ackrén, Professor of Political Science at the University of Greenland. But unlocking that potential comes with major challenges. “There is a lack of infrastructure, which companies have to take into account. They need to build everything from scratch – new roads, harbors, and the like.”
Although Greenland’s new government has shown more willingness to support mineral extraction, foreign investors remain cautious. Arctic mining is expensive, bureaucratically complex, and politically sensitive. As Ackrén noted, “Foreign companies are making some risk calculations which might not add up with the potential outcomes they might receive from opening a mine.”
The island is already navigating a growing great power rivalry. “Greenland’s official position is to be open for business to anyone who would like to invest in the country,” Ackrén said. But this balancing act has grown more delicate as Trump-era rhetoric pushed Greenland closer to Nordic and European partners, while China has emerged as a major trading partner – particularly for seafood.
“The Trump administration has harmed its relationships with all its allies,” Ackrén added. “Even though the U.S. is still a major alliance partner for Denmark and Greenland within NATO, we can see that the alliance might take a new form in the future. In my view, the true existence of NATO might be in danger.”
NATO and the U.S. can’t afford to alienate allies or delay action in the Arctic. As Russia and China expand their presence, the West must invest in Arctic-ready defenses and rebuild trust with key partners like Greenland.
But perhaps the most effective way to curb Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic is to defeat it in Ukraine. A chastened Russia is far less likely to overestimate its strength in the Arctic or the Baltic. A confident one, on the other hand, may gamble – pushing its luck through conventional aggression or gray zone tactics like undersea cable cutting. Either way, failing to act decisively now risks letting Russia’s conflict with the West spread further north.
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