U.S. President Donald Trump said that he personally asked the Russian leader to refrain from large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during severe cold weather. Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, in turn emphasized that Trump did indeed ask Putin to refrain from strikes until February 1, but did not disclose the Russian president’s reaction.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, stressed that the energy ceasefire effectively began on January 30, and therefore it remains unclear whether it will end in a few days, actually last a week, or be extended. This is always the case with agreements that are not confirmed by any signed documents and are based solely on verbal discussions. And, incidentally, this is exactly what Russia has always sought—to replace a world “by rules” with a world “by notions,” where one can simply “promise” something and later forget about it. Although, to be fair, Russians readily violate signed agreements as well; this, too, can be considered an element of their “political culture.”
But the main thing is that we do not know why Putin needs this ceasefire at all, or whether there is any agreement that the Russian president intends to respect.
We understand that Putin is trying to prevent an open escalation of relations with Trump—both because he would like to avert new sanctions and because he hopes to use contacts with the U.S. presidential administration to jointly pressure Ukraine, for example on territorial issues. After all, it is clear that attempts to push the Ukrainian authorities toward territorial concessions are a path to internal destabilization in Ukraine and, possibly, to the occupation of new Ukrainian territories. But attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are an important part of Putin’s plan. If he has decided to step back from them, there must be more substantial reasons than merely relations with Trump.
It is also possible that this is not a ceasefire at all, but simply an accumulation of missiles and Shahed drones for new strikes. Such situations have occurred many times before: attacks might not take place for several weeks, only to intensify later. And no one called that a ceasefire.
Finally, we should not forget an even more significant reason: strikes on Russian oil refineries may genuinely be causing Putin problems. He may want to stop them—but then certainly not for just one week. This raises a key question: what is more important for the Russian president—to preserve his oil refining capacity or to destroy Ukraine’s energy system? Especially considering that Russian refineries are being hit by drones, while Ukrainian infrastructure is being attacked by missiles combined with drones. The answer to this question will become clear in the coming days and weeks.
There is also another important motive that could have influenced the Kremlin’s decision—the negotiation process itself. On the one hand, Putin can demonstrate his “constructiveness” to the Americans; on the other, he can exert pressure on the Ukrainian authorities and remind them of the consequences of their unwillingness to compromise. After all, one of the massive bombardments of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities took place precisely on the night between two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi.
So there are quite a few reasons to change tactics, at least for a few days. But the main question remains: does this undeclared ceasefire bring us any closer to real peace, or is it instead evidence that any peace in the Russian-Ukrainian war can, in fact, only be a “hybrid” peace?
Author: Vitaly Portnikov
