Meetings between the President of the United States and the leader of China are always treated with particular attention, even though for many years now practically nothing has happened at these meetings, and the main task of their participants has simply been not to fall out completely.
In Ukraine, however, in recent years every time the American and Chinese leaders meet, people try to understand whether Donald Trump — and before him Joseph Biden — can influence Xi Jinping strongly enough for him to “order” Putin to stop the war. And every time, disappointment follows when it turns out that Russia’s war against Ukraine was not even among the main topics of U.S.-Chinese negotiations.
Of course, the United States and China have countless problems of their own that they could discuss for weeks. Taiwan, China’s claims against the Philippines, economic issues, nuclear arms reductions, and now “artificial intelligence” as well. And on none of these issues is any real understanding visible — at best, there is a kind of “cold peace.” Within this “cold peace,” it is difficult even to imagine how the U.S. president could practically apply the provisions of the newly adopted and signed “Graham Act” against China — especially since, just before the Chinese leader’s visit, American and Chinese officials once again agreed on an economic truce for the coming months. So how, under these circumstances, can the American president influence his Chinese guest, and is it even worth raising the subject of Ukraine at all?
But even if we imagine that Trump and Xi discussed Ukraine in detail, could they actually agree on anything meaningful? Trump is interested in ending the war, but not in Ukraine disappearing. Xi is primarily interested in ensuring that Russia does not lose, and in this he is forced to rely on Putin’s own vision of success. Trump does not want — at least publicly — Russia to evade sanctions and sell oil to China. Xi, on the other hand, is interested in Russia continuing to sell that oil to China, and now, amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, this is not merely a matter of preference.
And finally, anyone who thinks that Xi can simply order Putin around also exaggerates the Chinese leader’s influence. Yes, the Russian president cannot ignore the views of his Chinese counterpart. But for China, Russia is both the partner with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and a supplier of cheap oil, and — most importantly — an instrument for destabilizing the West. The Russian-Ukrainian war is part of that destabilization. Why would China help bring it to an end when the continuation of the war weakens both the West and Russia?
That is why one should not expect serious results from meetings between American and Chinese leaders. Not only when it comes to the Russian-Ukrainian war, but also on other fundamental issues. The United States and the People’s Republic of China today — even if Trump believes that he and his Chinese counterpart have excellent personal relations — still stand on different poles of the modern world. And the problems of the world’s two largest economies are different. Even Trump’s and Xi Jinping’s personal political concerns are different. Trump is thinking about his party’s success in elections and about a successor. Xi is conducting party purges and preparing to seek a fourth term.
But can the Chinese leader’s view of the Russian-Ukrainian war be changed? Yes, it can — and the latest summits of “Global South” leaders confirmed this, when both Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke about the need to find a political solution to the conflict with Putin. But why?
Certainly not because of some excessive commitment to peace. First and foremost, because China is not interested in the destruction of Russia’s oil-refining industry or in a decline in oil production — something that will inevitably happen if refineries shut down. China needs Russian oil. And if Putin cannot protect it, perhaps he should start thinking about ending the escalation.
That is why the person who can truly persuade Xi is the Ukrainian soldier.
Author: Vitaly Portnikov
