The President of the United States emphasized that he told the President of Ukraine to stop strikes on Russia’s oil-refining complex because, he claimed, they are causing diesel prices to rise. Before this statement, the U.S. Secretaries of the Treasury and Energy had offered similar explanations for the price increase.
At first glance, this looks strange. The issue is not only that Russian supplies do not affect the global oil and petroleum-products market in the same way as blocked oil supplies from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz. The main point is that the United States has persistently fought against supplies of Russian oil and petroleum products in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It did so under the Biden administration and continued doing so under the Trump administration. The latest sanctions against Russia’s major oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, were signed by Trump himself. It was also Trump who imposed tariffs on Indian goods because he demanded that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stop purchasing Russian oil. Yes, after Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Treasury Department issued licenses several times allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil from tankers. But at the moment, that license has not been extended, and Russian-produced oil can only be purchased in violation of U.S. sanctions. One would think that if Donald Trump is so interested in lowering diesel prices, the first thing he could do would be to lift sanctions on Russia rather than demand that Ukraine stop striking Russian refineries. But we understand that the American president will not lift those sanctions because he simply has no other instruments of pressure on Putin. Ukraine, however, and its alleged role in driving up prices at gas stations, will be mentioned.
We have entered a very dangerous period. Every American can understand this simply by looking at the calendar and at the price boards at gas stations. The congressional midterm elections, which are expected to bring victory to the Democrats, are rapidly approaching. Meanwhile, gas prices are not falling — they are rising. And the American president urgently needs to find someone to blame for that increase.
Blaming Iran — the real culprit behind the energy crisis, which continues not only to block the Strait of Hormuz but also to create, through its proxies, the possibility of blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively cutting off oil exports from the Persian Gulf entirely — would mean admitting that no agreement with Tehran is possible and that its new leadership cannot be influenced. That, in turn, would raise uncomfortable questions about how well thought out the American strikes on Iran were, about the ability to guarantee energy security, and about the capacity to resist attempts to pressure America and the entire world by blocking oil routes. And the answers to these questions are unlikely to improve the reputation of those who had hoped for a quick victory over the regime of the ayatollahs.
That leaves Ukraine, which is not being used in an American election campaign for the first time. After all, saying that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are what is driving up prices is much more comfortable than reminding people of the real reasons behind the numbers displayed at gas stations.
What should Ukraine do in this situation? In my view, it should maintain its position while at the same time avoiding a quarrel with the U.S. presidential administration at a critical moment for it. Strikes on oil refineries are one of the most important tools for forcing Russia toward peace. This must be explained both to the President of the United States and to his ministers. At the same time, it is worth remembering that Trump does not have that many levers of influence not only over Russia, but over Ukraine either. So even if some strikes have to be halted, Ukraine must retain the ability to carry out others to which Trump does not object. But they should be carried out with more effective American assistance. Where are our Tomahawks?
And most importantly, whatever the American president may now demand from his Ukrainian counterpart, we are talking about a matter of just a few weeks. After November 3, 2026, we will find ourselves in a completely different world — one in which Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are unlikely to be Donald Trump’s biggest problem.
Author: Vitaly Portnikov
