Washington has backed the idea of arms control talks with China and Russia while maintaining military aid to Ukraine. In the US Senate, there are calls to rescind the invitation to Putin for the G20 summit, while Poland is proposing financial terms for a permanent US military presence. Against this backdrop, ISW analysts are assessing the prospects for an energy truce between Ukraine and Russia and potential shifts in Russia's strike campaign.
Trump supports the idea of US-China-Russia arms control talks
During a summit in Washington with Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump supported holding trilateral arms control talks involving the US, China, and Russia. This is outlined in White House materials summarizing the Chinese leader's visit to the US on September 23–25. The documents note that Trump advocated for separate arms control negotiations among the three nations.
"The President advocated for trilateral arms control negotiations between the United States, Russia, and China," the White House materials state.
During the meeting, Trump and Xi also discussed a range of international issues, including Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Notably, the parties agreed that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. The White House also noted that no country or organization should be able to levy fees for passage through international waterways.
"They agreed that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and that no country or organization should be permitted to charge fees for passage through international waterways," the White House stated.
ISW: Putin unlikely to agree to an energy truce before winter ends
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses it as unlikely that Russia will agree to halt strikes on energy infrastructure before the end of the 2026–2027 winter. Analysts suggest that Putin may opt for a long-range strike campaign throughout the winter season. According to ISW, assessment, this approach could entail intensified strikes on the Ukrainian rear and critical infrastructure. On September 25, Putin claimed that Ukraine was insisting on a halt to long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, linking this to the scale of Russian attacks and the use of upgraded "Geran" drones.
Putin also stated that Ukraine "must feel" the impact of Russian retaliatory strikes and understand that its actions—which he termed "provocative"—are allegedly worsening the situation. A Kremlin-linked Russian military blogger supported this stance, stating that strikes on Ukraine's economic and industrial capacity could weaken its negotiating position. The ISW notes that Russia has failed to achieve the expected results from its strategy of gradual frontline advances in 2026, with its net territorial gains hovering near zero since March. Analysts assess that if the Kremlin alters its approach to the war, Russia may increasingly rely on long-range strikes, attempting to ramp up pressure on Ukraine by targeting the rear and critical infrastructure.
Senators Urge Trump to Rescind G20 Invitation to Putin
A bipartisan group of 14 U.S. senators has called on President Donald Trump to withdraw the invitation extended to Putin for the G20 summit scheduled for December in Miami. The letter to the White House was initiated by Roger Wicker, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Jeanne Shaheen, a leading Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In the document, the senators stated that Putin’s participation in the summit could raise questions regarding the legitimization of the Russian government's actions.
"President Putin bears sole responsibility for launching Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine," the document reads. "Allowing participation in the G20 summit in the United States raises serious concerns regarding the legitimization and normalization of the actions of a government that continues to attack Ukrainian civilian targets on a daily basis."
The senators also stated that Russia is helping Iran carry out attacks against U.S. military personnel in the Middle East and has stepped up hybrid activities in Europe. They noted that Russian officials had already participated in a number of G20 meetings in the U.S.—specifically, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attended the finance ministers' meeting in North Carolina. The authors of the letter pointed out that Putin, Siluanov, and other members of Russian delegations participating in G20 events are subject to U.S. sanctions.
"The United States must exert strong economic and political pressure on President Putin to force him to the negotiating table for serious peace talks," the letter emphasizes.
The senators called for the withdrawal of the invitation to Putin and urged that other sanctioned Russian officials linked to the war against Ukraine be barred from future G20 events.
The U.S. is set to provide Ukraine with over $90 million in additional military aid by the end of September
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to order over $90 million worth of military equipment for Ukraine by the end of September. This involves a portion of the funds approved by the U.S. Congress last year to assist Ukraine. In total, Congress allocated nearly $400 million, of which the White House had already utilized $307 million as of the beginning of this week. The U.S. administration is required to allocate the remaining $93 million before the fiscal year ends on September 30.
"The Trump administration has made a legal commitment to spend nearly the entire $400 million that Congress approved last year for aid to Ukraine," the report states.
According to the report, the list of equipment to be ordered for Ukraine does not include Patriot interceptors. This comes amidst Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
"One source stated that the list of military equipment does not include Patriot interceptors, despite Russia's drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities," the report notes.
At the same time, Ukraine has already begun receiving some U.S. military equipment this month, including offensive weapons and spare parts for armored vehicles. The remaining deliveries are scheduled to be completed by October 2029.
Poland Ready to Pay $15,000 per U.S. Soldier for Permanent Base
Poland is prepared to allocate $15,000 annually for each American soldier serving on its territory and to fully fund the necessary infrastructure. Warsaw and Washington are discussing the possibility of establishing a permanent U.S. military base in Poland. Polish Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski said, that negotiations with the Pentagon have already moved on to the practical implementation of the plan. The parties are discussing the size and types of units, their capabilities, and potential locations for the future base.
According to Zalewski, Poland is offering "special terms" to the U.S. military; specifically, it is ready to fund the required infrastructure and pay $15,000 a year for every U.S. soldier stationed in the country. These costs are to be covered by the Polish budget. Thousands of American troops are already present in Poland, though mostly on a rotational basis, whereas Warsaw seeks a permanent U.S. presence. On September 17, U.S. President Donald Trump announced progress in negotiations regarding the establishment of an American military base in Poland and the possibility of announcing its location soon. The final parameters of the base will depend on the Pentagon's broader review of the U.S. military presence in Europe.
Photo: The Wall Street Journal
Author: Danylo Pievchev