From the very first day of Donald Trump’s new presidential term, the relevance of U.S. foreign policy has reached record-breaking levels. The 47th president of the world's most powerful nation has drastically shifted traditional priorities and is now focused on addressing issues within the Western Hemisphere.
Але попри все, сьогодні ми стоїмо на порозі нової ери – ери, коли США як найпотужніша держава та демократія світу безальтернативно мусить залишатися непорушною стіною і захистом для усієї західної цивілізації від так званої сучасної “вісі зла” або можемо назвати їх як “новітніх вершників Апокаліпсису” – Китаю, Росії, Ірану та Північної Кореї. І перелік саме цих держав у списку першочергових завдань для другої адміністрації Дональда Трампа не применшено через його поточну надувагу до Канади, Мексики, Гренландії та Панами, бо мова йде не про тактичні, а про стратегічні цілі.
To begin with, let us acknowledge a simple fact: military conflicts are constantly occurring around the world. However, we must all remember the two hottest battlefronts – Ukraine and Israel – both of which are engaged in existential struggles, with all of the "Modern Horsemen" directly or indirectly involved. The future world order, without exaggeration, depends on the victory or defeat of these two nations. If Ukraine and Israel fall, then – like a domino effect – other states and established international institutions will follow. The only question is the timing and methods the "Modern Horsemen" will use to achieve this.
It is crucial to understand that the United States must always prioritize its own interests – this is a fundamental principle of global history. For example, the well-known British politician and long-serving Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in the mid-19th century, Lord Henry Palmerston, famously stated: “Britain has no eternal allies and no perpetual enemies, only eternal and perpetual interests, and it is our duty to protect them.” The real question is: what kind of state are we dealing with – democratic, authoritarian, or totalitarian? The nature of a state significantly impacts its definition of national interests, both domestically and on the international stage.
Now, let us directly address the issue at hand: the U.S. foreign policy approach toward the "Horsemen" over at least the next four years.
Thus, the United States must first and foremost address the Russian issue. Why Russia and not China? The answer is simple – Russia, not China, poses the greatest immediate threat to the U.S. today. Unlike Russia, China can be engaged pragmatically through sanctions and tariffs, and Beijing is generally willing to play by established rules.
Therefore, when it comes to U.S. foreign policy toward Russia, extreme caution is required, along with an awareness of key geopolitical axioms. For instance, it is no longer the 1990s – it is now 2025, and the world has undergone radical transformations. The geopolitical landscape has changed, and so have the key players in international relations. Viewing the world through the outdated lens of two geopolitical centers – Washington and Moscow – is no longer relevant. Nearly 35 years have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and, for the record, Russia is far from being the USSR in terms of its global influence. However, this topic warrants a separate discussion.
Nevertheless, some European politicians still insist that Russia’s opinion is of paramount importance and should be taken into full consideration. This is far from reality. More than that, such an approach is highly detrimental to the U.S. and the entire modern democratic world.
With that in mind, here are several potential directions for U.S. foreign policy in countering Russia. One of the most effective measures, in our view, would be the economic front – specifically, the continuation and expansion of sanctions. The U.S. has already made significant progress in this area, but there is still more work to be done. Targeted sanctions should be intensified against Russian financial institutions, the country’s energy sector, and key individuals – officials and oligarchs closely tied to the Kremlin. This sustained pressure will only benefit the United States.
Another effective step would be a well-calculated American policy in the oil and gas sector, aimed at reducing Russia’s ability to export its energy resources. The U.S. can play this "card" pragmatically, yielding significant benefits for both its own economy and Europe's energy security. There is ample room for maneuver here. For instance, the U.S. could conduct a series of firm yet mutually beneficial negotiations with Saudi Arabia, the leading OPEC member. And there is no need to wait months, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would prefer.
Security issues are also of paramount importance in the U.S.-Russia confrontation. The Trump administration could focus its efforts on further strengthening defense cooperation with NATO allies, as well as separately with Turkey. Additionally, European NATO members must take greater responsibility for their own security by gradually increasing their defense spending as a percentage of GDP, rather than constantly looking toward Moscow with fear. A collective pressure campaign against Russia would systematically strip it of all its levers of influence over Europe, the Middle East, and the so-called Global South.
Cybersecurity should be highlighted separately. The United States must significantly strengthen its position, particularly in terms of protection against cyberattacks and the global fight against cybercrime, as it is well known that Russian security forces often stand behind terrorist organizations.
Regarding the political aspect of cooperation, the United States should continue dialogue with Russia but do so from a position of strength, as today Russia is weaker than it has ever been in the past 25 years, and its top officials and oligarchs are entirely dependent on the banking and financial policies of Western European countries and the United States.
And most importantly, for the U.S. in resolving the Russian issue, is supporting Ukraine. This may sound paradoxical, but precisely for its own security, the United States must continue to provide military and political support to the Ukrainian people until their victory and the signing of a new peace agreement, which could become the foundation for a new system of international relations. Moreover, supporting Ukraine will not only bring enormous benefits to the American economy but also significantly enhance Washington’s political influence in the long term.
For a full understanding, after the outbreak of war in 2014 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we can no longer speak of an established and internationally accepted order or any security in Europe, and therefore in the entire world. Thus, an active or passive position on this issue could result in either an international triumph or a very unpleasant (at least reputational) defeat for the United States across all continents.
Why is this the case? As is well known, Russia, as one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council and a guarantor of the Budapest Memorandum (1994), has blatantly violated its obligations toward Ukraine (as a UN member), and as a result, a vast number of international legal norms have been completely nullified, ushering in a period of "world order chaos," in which numerous negative processes for Western civilization – led by the United States – are already unfolding.
Therefore, the United States must continue to remain the number one global power; otherwise, the domino effect will take hold, and we will no longer be able to contain the "Horsemen." And, let’s be frank – without U.S. leadership, not only Europe but also the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region (APR), Latin America, and Africa will be engulfed in massive socio-political crises.
Regarding U.S. foreign policy toward China over the next four years at a minimum, it must be multifaceted and able to adapt rapidly to changes in global politics and the world economy. Crucially, U.S.-China relations will directly depend on how the new administration of the 47th President of the United States resolves the "Russian issue."
Despite everything, we believe that the U.S. should continue negotiations with China on new trade agreements aimed at reducing the trade deficit and protecting intellectual property. The United States must pragmatically leverage its economic power at a time when China is experiencing its most significant demographic and economic challenges in decades. This window of opportunity must not be wasted.
Regarding military-political security, the United States must continue strengthening defense cooperation with allies in the region, particularly Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other Asia-Pacific nations. That means expanding and reinforcing what can be called an "Asian NATO." At the same time, the U.S. should enhance and deepen cooperation with China in intellectual property, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity. Additionally, strengthening cooperation within the framework of the "Five Eyes" alliance (United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand) will also contribute to managing the China issue.
Political cooperation with Beijing should be based on dialogue concerning shared interests, such as nuclear non-proliferation and counterterrorism, as both nations consider these critical issues.
Finally, the United States can once again demonstrate that it continues to support China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, particularly regarding Taiwan. However, at the same time, Washington should maintain its policy of further support for the island.
Regarding foreign policy maneuvering with Iran, the United States must act cautiously and strategically. To begin with, successfully resolving the Russian issue would send a strong signal not only to China but also to Iran. Here are a few potential strategies that could help the new U.S. presidential administration maintain control over the situation. First, as with Russia, we start with sanctions. The United States must continue imposing sanctions on Iran, primarily targeting its nuclear program and support for terrorism. This is crucial not only for Israel, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, but also for the Gulf states. This approach will simultaneously achieve several important objectives for the U.S. – weakening terrorist organizations and militant groups while also contributing to the resolution of the Syrian issue in the long run.
In addition, the United States must continue to strengthen defense cooperation with its allies in the region. Special attention should also be given to cooperation with Turkey, which has long aspired to at least regional leadership and will increasingly oppose both Iran and Russia. In principle, Turkey should become one of the key U.S. allies.
The United States should also maintain its military presence in the Middle East while avoiding direct military confrontation with Iran. In our view, the U.S. must continue to support regional security forces, particularly the security and defense forces of Israel, in their fight against terrorist organizations in the region – many of which are backed by Iran. Notably, weakening Iran in this regard will automatically weaken Russia as well. Thus, as we can see, it is possible to neutralize multiple threats with a single move.
U.S. foreign policy toward North Korea must be built upon progress in the Russian and Chinese spheres. We fully understand that without support from China and Russia, Pyongyang's authoritarian regime would quickly change its aggressive rhetoric and cease to act as an uncontrolled detonator. Therefore, in terms of security policy toward North Korea, the United States should continue to strengthen and deepen defense cooperation with regional allies, primarily South Korea and Japan, while systematically raising the North Korean issue in U.S.-China diplomatic negotiations.
It is also important to recognize that despite everything, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program and conducts missile tests (with mutually beneficial support from Russia), further exacerbating tensions in the region.
Another critical issue for the U.S. is cybersecurity, as North Korean hackers, who operate under the control of the authoritarian regime, have repeatedly carried out cyberattacks on leading global financial institutions. For example, they have stolen billions of dollars in cryptocurrency, which was then used to further develop North Korea's nuclear program.
Thus, the United States must continuously employ all available means and mechanisms to exert pressure on North Korea, while also maintaining a military presence in South Korea and around the Korean Peninsula. Південній Кореї та навколо Корейського півострова.
As we can see, the new U.S. presidential administration faces an extensive workload in the coming years. However, we must clearly understand that none of the "Horsemen of the Apocalypse" can challenge the United States alone, but together, they can pose serious challenges to Washington on three major fronts – in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region.
Therefore, the U.S. must act strategically and proactively, because otherwise, the entire modern democratic bloc of nations, and ultimately human civilization itself, will face, to put it mildly, difficult times and unpredictable events in the era of "world order chaos."
Author: Yurii Kopynets