Between the Frontline and Diplomacy: Can Geneva Change the Course of the War

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, are focused on key disputes — territory and post-war security guarantees. However, attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the eve of the meeting have significantly lowered expectations of any breakthrough. The parties acknowledge the complexity of the process, and previous rounds have produced no tangible results. Against this backdrop, the EU seeks to increase economic pressure on Moscow with new sanctions, although political resistance within the bloc remains.

Russia Strikes Energy Infrastructure Ahead of New Geneva Talks

Russian forces launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just hours before the start of another round of trilateral talks in Geneva. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 12 regions were targeted, and the attack was: 

“combined, specifically calculated to inflict maximum damage on our energy system.” 

As a result of the strikes, three energy workers were killed, and tens of thousands of people were left without electricity and heating. The president called for diplomacy to be reinforced with “justice and strength.”

The Deputy Minister of Energy reported that the workers were killed in a drone strike on their vehicle near the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant. Energy company DTEK described the damage to infrastructure supplying electricity to Odesa as “extremely serious,” warning that recovery would take considerable time. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched nearly 400 drones and 29 missiles, most of which were intercepted, though 13 facilities were hit. Power outages were recorded in at least five regions, with heating disruptions reported in Odesa and Sumy.

Geneva Talks: Territory as the Main Stumbling Block

A new two-day round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, has begun in Geneva, with territorial issues at the center of discussions. U.S. President Donald Trump urged Kyiv to “quickly get to the negotiating table,” stating

“Well, we have big negotiations. It will be very easy. I mean, look, right now Ukraine better get to the table fast. That’s what I’m telling you.” 

At the same time, President Zelenskyy emphasized that Kyiv is facing the greatest pressure regarding possible concessions, while Russia insists on the transfer of the remaining 20% of Donetsk region.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saidthat this round would address a “broader range of issues,” including territories and other Moscow demands. The Russian delegation is led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, while the Ukrainian side is represented by National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov. Expectations for a breakthrough remain low, as the parties also differ significantly on control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the role of Western troops after the war. The talks are taking place amid intensified fighting and renewed large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy system.

Third Round of Talks: Five Tracks, No Clear Progress

The third round of negotiations on ending the war has begun in Geneva, organized with U.S. participation. NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov also reported, that security and humanitarian issues are on the agenda. According to Russian agencies, five tracks are being discussed, including territorial, military, political, and economic aspects. Previous rounds in Abu Dhabi produced no significant results beyond prisoner exchanges.

Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky once again leads the Russian delegation, with military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov also participating. The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine hand over parts of Donetsk region that Russia has been unable to fully seize since 2014. 

President Zelenskyy previously stated that neither side is “eager” to create a free economic zone in the region but did not rule out the possibility of compromises. Intensified attacks from both sides further complicate diplomatic efforts.

Peace Talks Without Breakthrough: Territory and Guarantees Remain Barriers

The new round of talks in Switzerland marks the third trilateral format in recent weeks, yet prospects for a breakthrough remain slim. Previous meetings in the United Arab Emirates were described as productive, but no real progress was achieved. The main obstacles remain Russia’s territorial demands and the issue of Western security guarantees for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy stressed that it would be “a big mistake to allow the aggressor to gain anything.”

Russia demands the transfer of parts of Donetsk region still controlled by Ukraine — a condition Kyiv considers unacceptable. At the same time, the Ukrainian side has signaled readiness to discuss a demilitarized zone as a possible compromise. Polls indicate growing war fatigue within society, but hostilities continue, and attacks on energy infrastructure are intensifying. According to Ukrainian military sources, nearly 40 missiles and 400 drones were launched in the latest assault alone.

EU Prepares 20th Sanctions Package Against Russia Amid Internal Resistance

The European Union is finalizing its 20th sanctions package against Russia, aimed at restricting the “shadow fleet” and energy exports. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas insists the package be adopted by February 24 — the anniversary of the full-scale invasion. The measures are expected to be synchronized with the United Kingdom and to expand restrictions on maritime services for tankers transporting Russian oil and gas. Special attention is being paid to closing sanctions loopholes through third countries.

However, Hungary’s position may delay final approval. According to diplomats, Budapest insists on removing certain individuals from the sanctions list, sparking debate among member states. The new package could also, for the first time, target ports in third countries that facilitate Russian oil exports, including in Georgia and Indonesia. A final decision is expected following discussions among EU ambassadors in the Coreper II format.

Photo: engage.org.ua 

Author: Danylo Pievchev

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