The war around Ukraine is entering a new phase, where military risks are increasingly intertwined with diplomatic and economic pressure. Kyiv is warning of a possible new threat from the Belarusian direction, Washington is effectively shifting the main burden of support to Europe, and the US sanctions policy is once again affecting the global oil market. Against this background, international financial analysts are already modeling scenarios for ending the war, and increasingly, the focus is not on the battlefield, but on a political compromise.
Russia is planning attacks from the territory of Belarus - Zelensky
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, that Russia is trying to drag Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine and is considering plans for strikes in the north of the country or on NATO countries from Belarusian territory.
“We continue to document Russia’s attempts to drag Belarus into a war against Ukraine,” Zelensky said on Telegram after meeting with military and intelligence officials.
He added that Ukraine is aware of additional contacts between Russia and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko regarding new aggressive operations.
According to Zelensky, Russia is considering operations to the south and north of Belarusian territory – either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries. He ordered Ukrainian troops to prepare a response plan and strengthen defenses in the northern directions.
“Ukraine will definitely defend itself and its people if Lukashenko makes the wrong decision and decides to support Russian intentions,” the president stressed.
US expects more support from Europe for Ukraine – Congress
The chairman of the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, Brian Mast, said, that Congress does not plan to approve a new large financial aid package for Ukraine, since the war is taking place “in Europe’s backyard.”
“We are ready to be mediators of peace. Europe must protect its own backyard,” he said.
Mast emphasized that Ukraine should not expect a package “neither for 60 billion dollars nor for 6 billion.”
At the same time, he noted that the US will continue to supply weapons, transfer intelligence and put pressure on Russia with sanctions. The American politician called on European states to take greater responsibility for supporting Kyiv, since the war is unfolding in the immediate vicinity of their borders.
The US did not extend the exception for Russian oil – Bloomberg
The US administration did not extend the license that allowed maritime operations with Russian oil that had already been loaded onto ships.
“The expiration effectively ends a brief period in which the administration eased sanctions on some Russian oil,” reported Bloomberg.
The waiver was previously granted in March and April to help stabilize global energy markets during the Iran conflict.
The administration’s decision has raised concerns among European allies, who see sanctions as an important tool to pressure Moscow to finance its war. Critics say such moves could temporarily enrich Russia, especially as oil prices rise. Some countries, including India and Indonesia, have asked the United States to extend the waiver to avoid a shortage of oil on the market.
Ukraine war could end in a “Finnish scenario” – JPMorgan
Analysts of JPMorgan believe that the most likely outcome of the war is the so-called “Finnish scenario,” in which Ukraine loses some territory but retains its sovereignty and its course toward the West. According to the bank's estimates, the front line is changing little, and the future of the conflict will be determined not on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table.
"Within the framework of a possible compromise, Ukraine may agree to a neutral status and limitations on the size and capabilities of the army," experts note.
Russia will try to present this as its own victory, although it will not achieve a complete surrender of Ukraine. For the country, this may mean gradual integration into the EU and, possibly, NATO, provided that collective security guarantees are implemented. JPMorgan also specifies that a "Georgian scenario" was previously considered for Ukraine, but it was rejected due to the strengthening of support for Kyiv from the EU.
Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
Author: Danylo Pievchev