The upcoming week promises to be extraordinarily tense – with the U.S. presidential inauguration approaching, stakes are expected to rise even higher, and the emotional tension among Ukrainians to burn even brighter. Expectations, skillfully managed by American, Ukrainian, and especially russian elites, unfortunately, take root all too effectively in the already stressed hearts of ordinary people. And it’s worth identifying some markers to avoid falling into this trap.
This week will be particularly productive for Donald Trump. Until he formally occupies his rightful seat in the Oval Office, he can make virtually any statements without bearing "presidential" responsibility for them. This is a golden opportunity to maintain control over the information field and observe the reactions of other players. In essence, this is a “testing ground” where hypotheses are being checked, and based on the reactions of various societal groups, as well as officials across the Americas and Eurasia, a foundation is being laid for decisions that will carry yet presidential weight.
Russian intelligence services, renowned for their extraordinary mastery in manipulating media environments, have long been deftly shaping many elements of the daily narrative in the U.S., though not as overtly as they do in Ukraine. Typically, these actions focus on three main areas: deepening internal polarization among Americans, diverting attention from Russia's actual activities on the global stage, and persistently pushing the narrative of U.S. "instability." An example of such a narrative that encompasses all three areas is the claim that America is "on the brink of civil war." For Ukraine, a comparable narrative is that "peace talks are about to begin."
Ukrainians, regardless of their geographic location, exhausted by years of Russian aggression and accumulated but unresolved internal issues, grow even more fatigued, as they become targets of such technologies. Moving between the key milestones of major events, the interim periods are filled with information designed to create expectations: “putin is dead,” “a coup in the kremlin,” “war will end by [choose any date],” “Trump will end the war,” and thousands of other easy, understandable, and so desired reliefs that will never come true. Rationality always gives way to emotion in cases of prolonged and intense emotional exhaustion.
The “expectation of a miracle” paradoxically hinders its achievement. This is how the trap works. Every time, without fail. After realizing that Putin is not dead, and the war hasn’t ended within 2–3 weeks, a void and a sense of helplessness remain in the soul. This is precisely what the enemy seeks. Therefore, the only chance to maintain stability is to act proactively and avoid falling into these laid traps.
The nearest trap awaiting Ukrainians, especially those who voted for Donald Trump, sincerely believing he would end the war within 24 hours, is set for January 20. The disappointment in a miracle that didn’t happen saps strength, while Ukrainians now more than ever need energy and unity of effort. The linear development of events indicates a lack of any rational signs of fundamental changes on the front. However, this same linearity confirms the strength of the Ukrainian diaspora, which has made colossal efforts to win the favor of Ukraine among representatives of both parties, as well as federal and local-level officials in America. Step by step, our activists draw the attention of more and more Americans, motivating them to support and actively collaborate. Today, this path is the only one leading to victory.
As for media “demining,” here are four tips for interacting with the perverted information space for those who wish to keep their hearts warm and heads cool:
- Filter your sources. Do not take any “sensational leaks” from unknown or dubious “intelligence sources” or “insiders” at face value.
- Understand who benefits. Ask yourself: “What goal do those spreading this message pursue? What do they want me to feel or do?”
- Don’t postpone initiative. No inauguration or “grand statement” frees us from daily small steps toward the goal: volunteering, supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and politely pressuring American politicians.
- Engage with community and diaspora organizations and events. Active communities are better at spotting fakes, verifying information, and collectively influencing discourse in America.
Author: Lukian Selskyi