"A monkey with a grenade is the worst neighbor: you never know if it will throw it at your feet or drop it on its own head. But sooner or later, it will inevitably do one or the other."
Modern geopolitical processes increasingly resemble this metaphor: russia, with its nuclear arsenal and unlimited ability to keep the world on edge, behaves like a "monkey with a grenade" in someone else's house. America, personified by Donald Trump with his "unpredictable style," seeks to exploit this situation to its maximum advantage.
So far, no documents have been signed, no official agreements reached, and no significant changes have occurred. The real battle is taking place at the level of communication. People are once again caught in the trap of anticipation — "something is about to happen" — and the duration of this process no longer matters, as it is constructed like a television series that an emotionally invested audience does not want to end. The "influence operation" — or, to call things by their proper name, a PSYOP — "shocks" European capitals and forces the entire world to watch a "game without rules." But the primary target of this orchestrated chaos is the kremlin.
Give the monkey a banana and make friends? Or shoot it?
For decades, the world was accustomed to a certain "containment agreement": official nuclear states did not break established diplomatic protocols and did everything to avoid direct confrontation. However, modern russia, on the brink of its demise, is breaking these rules, attempting to shroud itself in an aura of unpredictability.
The phenomenon of the KGB elite (which is why security agencies of other countries handle them so cautiously) is that they genuinely do not establish red lines. Nothing is "too much," and concepts of good and evil do not exist for them in a literal sense. The notion that putin is merely "trying to appear unpredictable" is incomplete — while he sets certain strategic markers, on a tactical-operational level, he is highly flexible, adapting successfully to new situations. This is precisely why Trump’s actions may prove effective — the rapid pace and sheer volume of PSYOPs are designed to force the russians into making more and more mistakes.
One should tip our hats to the U.S. President at least because he has acknowledged that attempts to negotiate with the kremlin using traditional methods are pointless: blackmail, terrorism, and bluffing have become moscow's primary "export products." Therefore, he has made a bold decision — to impose his own agenda and elevate it to a level where russia can no longer avoid being drawn into it.
So why does he play the role of "putin’s friend"?
When Donald Trump calls putin or offers to visit moscow for a parade, it appears to be a betrayal of Western and, above all, Ukrainian interests. However, in reality, such gestures may be elements of a highly sophisticated PSYOP, the sole purpose of which is to operate within the information space of the "monkey from the kremlin." The goal is for it to believe in Trump’s sincerity, take the "banana," and feel "friendship and respect." After all, the monkey is the one holding the grenade, and it alone has the power to cause the destruction of humanity. When the stakes are this high, and thousands of russian intelligence operatives are monitoring every gesture and word, Trump and his team must act convincingly. At the same time, they must solve several other, less critical but still necessary tasks — "waking up" European countries, adjusting their interaction with Ukrainian authorities, refreshing relations with China, attracting the world’s major media to their side, controlling the information space, and, of course, reinforcing their own power and influence.
Historical parallels: between appeasement and aggressive bargaining
Before World War II, the policy of appeasing Hitler (turning a blind eye to his annexations, ignoring treaty violations) backfired on Europe — the Nazi dictator only gained strength and eventually launched a global conflict.
Today, the American approach resembles the aggressive bargaining tactics typical of billionaire Trump: you display readiness for "friendship" to extract concessions from your opponent while always keeping the option of a sudden "strike" if they cross the "red lines." Trump is doing what he does best, making it appropriate to compare his actions to business negotiations — where you simultaneously offer your partner a good deal but keep a "Plan B, C, D" in the background involving serious pressure (sanctions, isolation, military support for allies, direct military action, etc.).
Why aren't Europe and Ukraine a priority for Trump?
For the U.S. President, the main challenge is russia, with its nuclear threat and unpredictable behavior. Europeans (and Ukraine even more so) are less of a "problem" for him: despite differences, the Western world remains relatively united on a fundamental level.
Trump can afford to:
- Harshly criticize Berlin or Paris, demanding increased defense spending.
- Make ambiguous statements about Ukraine, alternately warning of "withdrawal of support" and "increased assistance."
All of this is a way to keep allies on edge and secure a favorable negotiating position. The two main challenges trump's team is tackling:
- Strategic uncertainty. Trump knows that the best weapon against someone like putin is speed and unpredictability. Yesterday, America imposed sanctions on moscow; today, the U.S. President "praises" the russian leader. From the perspective of show business and business deals, which have always been Trump's forte, this is a standard technique: first intimidate, then pacify — repeating this cycle until the opponent is coerced into making the desired decision. Appeasing the kremlin and showcasing the benefits of cooperation with the U.S. is an attempt to reduce aggression, loosen its defensive posture, and perhaps even lure the russian elite with promises of investments or global status. If putin’s criminal syndicate takes the bait, Washington will use it as leverage in future negotiations.
- "Electroshock" for the EU and allies. To neutralize russia, the U.S. needs a strong alliance — primarily in Europe. If Europeans today are fragmented and accustomed to relying on America as the undisputed leader, they need a wake-up call. Trump avoids classic diplomatic pleasantries and opts for shock therapy — sharply criticizing NATO, making cutting remarks about Germany and France, occasionally threatening to withdraw from "obsolete formats," and deploying his ambitious "envoys" to stir up communication. The goal is to shake up the Europeans and push them out of their lethargy.
Information “swings” and the role of media: how we are “betrayed” and “saved” every day
Over the past few years, many Ukrainian readers have experienced sharp emotional swings:
- Yesterday: “Trump called putin! Betrayal! Ukraine has been sold out!”
- Today: “Trump criticized russia in Congress! They’re going to pass Lend-Lease for Ukraine! Hooray!”
- Tomorrow: “Trump is going to moscow?! This is a total capitulation of Ukraine to the kremlin!”
These “swings” exist because 95% of events take place in the public information space rather than in the form of real decisions and signed agreements. Trump, as a reality TV star and a master negotiator, understands the power of media: a few sentences on Twitter or a striking speech are enough to create an entire wave of panic or hope.
How not to fall into the trap of these PSYOPs?
It is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukrainians to keep a cool head and a steady heart when faced with the reality that the entire country could cease to exist in the near future. Let this text serve as a warning against panic — stay rational, do not fall for daily hysterical headlines, and remember: no matter how many “shocks” Trump delivers to Europe, he cannot play against russia without allies. Every “electroshock” can be an opportunity for us to advance our own interests: securing new resources, strengthening defense, spreading truthful information about the war, and gaining the support of influential players. Here are a few key points to consider:
- Maintain critical thinking. Verify sources. If someone screams, “That’s it, we’ve been sold out,” consider whether this claim is supported by actual documents or is merely based on “insider information” and speculation. Keep in mind that many FSB agents operate in Ukraine today, including within official media. A key red flag is any attempt to manipulate emotions by amplifying feelings of disappointment and helplessness.
- Recognize the “public performance.” In most cases, Trump, putin, Zelenskyy, Macron, or any other leader makes statements to influence the emotions of their own or foreign voters. Real agreements are always made behind closed doors, away from public scrutiny.
- Focus on real actions. For example, if the U.S. has approved an increase in military aid to Ukraine or expanded sanctions against russian companies, that matters far more than ten public promises to “bring everyone to peace.”
- Accept that no one will solve all of Ukraine’s problems. Even the loudest alliances or “international guarantees” are merely tools, not solutions. Internal resilience — economic, political, and military — must be built independently. Ukraine is paying a very high price for this “growing up.”
- Use “chaos” as a window of opportunity. Instead of waiting for a “global agreement” to settle everything for us, we must be proactive in establishing connections with Western governments, engaging the diaspora, and creating new joint projects. When the structures suddenly start shifting in different directions, an opportunity may arise to push forward initiatives that benefit Ukraine.
However, it is important to remember that the “monkey with a grenade” is both a symbol of uncertainty and a warning of great tragedy. russia could very well resort to radical actions when realizes that it has been lured into a trap. And at that point, no amount of “bananas” will help.
Author: Lukian Selskyi