The main event of recent days was U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose the first large-scale sanctions against Russia since his return to the White House. These sanctions strike at the interests of oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and demonstrate to Vladimir Putin that the American president is moving from words to action.
Trump had indeed waited far too long, hoping that Putin would heed his proposals and agree to a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front in exchange for favorable peace terms. Their last phone conversation rekindled hope — at least in Trump’s imagination. And these hopes were not merely public posturing. Trump even privately admitted, in a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron overheard by journalists, that he “had a feeling Putin was inclined toward a deal.” But nothing happened after that call. Within days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the Kremlin remained firm in its position: no ceasefire without a peace agreement — and only on Russia’s terms. In essence, Lavrov reiterated to Rubio the same position the Kremlin has maintained since 2022, when Russia demanded “security guarantees” from the United States for itself.
Putin’s initial reaction to the sanctions was one of offense and irritation. Yet it seems that Putin is offended not only by Trump, but also by himself — for failing to “string the American president along” a little longer, maintaining Trump’s illusion of the Kremlin’s willingness for peace while avoiding new sanctions and further weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Otherwise, Putin would not have sent his main “intermediary,” Kirill Dmitriev, to Washington — the man who has been meeting with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and other administration officials in an attempt to convince them that a diplomatic solution is possible and close.
But can Dmitriev really fool anyone in this new reality?
Since the Alaska meeting, Trump has grown tired of promises. The American president has realized how damaging his encounters with Putin have become for his own reputation when they produce no concrete results. Now he needs tangible steps: a ceasefire, a halt to aerial terror, at least the first signs that the Kremlin is reducing its level of aggression. Instead, Ukrainian cities continue to live from one missile strike to the next. And Putin must understand that his “verbal credit of trust” from Trump has been exhausted. Trust can now be regained only through actions, not words.
Of course, Putin still has his favorite tool — escalation. He may try to move beyond the Ukrainian front, to demonstrate readiness to expand the war or to resort to nuclear blackmail. But it is unlikely this will make Trump soften sanctions or halt aid to Ukraine. On the contrary, each new escalation will trigger stronger sanctions and increased military support for Kyiv — and even pressure on Europeans to tighten their own sanctions and provide more weapons.
Putin has found himself in a difficult position. He believes he can wear down Ukraine for years. Yet at the same time, he sees that the longer the war drags on, the more Russia itself loses — militarily and economically. All the more so if Ukraine receives long-range missiles (not necessarily Tomahawks) capable of striking strategic targets deep inside Russia, turning its war machine and economy into ruins. And that is the last thing Putin wants.
On the other hand, a pause in the war would not be a tragedy for the Kremlin — quite the opposite, it would give time to prepare for new conflicts. But Putin often thinks irrationally when it comes to Ukraine. He may convince himself that now is the moment for Kyiv’s final capitulation and that any pause would ruin everything. And then he will choose escalation, losing touch with reality more and more — and provoking confusion even in Trump, who still cannot grasp why his Russian counterpart acts so irrationally.
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