Why Putin Brought Up “Novorossiya” Again

Against the backdrop of ongoing talks that are supposedly meant to lead to an end of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the Russian president, during a press conference in New Delhi, spoke of the inevitability of his troops “liberating” Donbas and “Novorossiya.”

At first glance, this statement might seem surprising. Until very recently, Putin spoke exclusively about the need to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the parts of Donetsk region still controlled by Kyiv, and even called this the main condition for ending the war. This is precisely what American envoys have been discussing with the Russian president; moreover, Donald Trump himself has repeatedly supported the idea of withdrawing Ukrainian troops from Donetsk and stressed that the Russians would “capture it anyway.” And now, suddenly, a seemingly forgotten term returns to Putin’s vocabulary: “Novorossiya” — appetite, as we know, comes with eating.

So why has Putin decided to start talking about “Novorossiya” again right now? First, the Russian president sees any negotiations with him as a sign of weakness. And he views the search for compromise as an even greater sign of weakness. If the Americans are indeed prepared to pressure the Ukrainians and demand that they withdraw their troops from Donbas, then why not add other Ukrainian territories to his list of New Year’s wishes?

Second, the very term “Novorossiya” is vague enough in political terms to give the Russian president enormous room for new demands. He can, of course, declare that “Novorossiya” includes the occupied and annexed territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and then demand not only the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas, but also from these regions. He could even refrain from insisting on an immediate withdrawal of forces, and instead agree to a frozen conflict formula — while constantly stressing that sooner or later Russia will “take back” these territories. Let the Damocles’ sword of war hang over Ukrainians’ heads even in the almost fantastical scenario where a ceasefire on the Russian–Ukrainian front is actually achieved.

But if he wishes, the territory of “Novorossiya” can be expanded further, because it is no accident that Putin has kept returning to the “gifts of the Bolsheviks” to Ukraine, including in his speech dedicated to the annexation of Crimea. And on the night of February 23–24, 2022, during his address to Russians, he also spoke of the supposed right of “the peoples of Ukraine” to self-determination. What “peoples” exactly? For example, the so-called “people of Donbas”! After all, such “peoples” can be concocted in every Ukrainian region occupied by Russia — precisely for the purpose of declaring it an “independent state” and then annexing it. This was in fact Putin’s blitzkrieg plan: to get rid of Ukraine’s legitimate government in Kyiv and force his marionettes Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Medvedchuk to hold a series of “referendums” in specific regions — that is, in the same “Novorossiya.” “Novorossiya,” which, in fact, they started talking about in Russia as early as August 1991. It was Putin’s political mentor Anatoly Sobchak who spoke of the “gift of the Bolsheviks,” and under both Yeltsin and Putin the Kremlin spent millions of rubles supporting pro-Russian forces and sentiments in eastern and southern Ukraine. They never forgot about the possibility of annexation; they simply hoped it would be easy and short.

As we know, in 2014 Putin had to put his large-scale annexation plan on hold. His 2022 blitzkrieg also failed — but that does not mean he abandoned his plan. He simply postponed it and decided that the instrument for annexing Ukrainian lands would no longer be a blitzkrieg, but a years-long war of attrition. And he has brought up “Novorossiya” again now because he has decided that the Americans are “wavering,” and that he can demand anything he likes from them.

And what, then, of the peace process that so many have been talking about in recent weeks? Nothing at all. Putin’s latest statements show that for him no peace process exists in reality. He is using the visits of American envoys solely to buy time, continue the war and escalate his territorial and political demands.

Author: Vitaly Portnikov