Consultations have intensified between the US, Ukraine and European partners on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and the future security architecture. Possible guarantees for Ukraine, the format of a ceasefire and the parameters of a post-war settlement are being discussed. The talks are taking place against the backdrop of an international summit in Berlin and public signals from Washington about the chances of progress.
Is the US ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine?
The US is considering the possibility of providing Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5 mechanism, but such a step would be accompanied by strict conditions. According to Axios, the Donald Trump administration is ready to submit the relevant commitments for a vote in Congress, which would give them legal force. These are not symbolic statements, but formalized guarantees that could become part of a broader package of agreements. At the same time, the US does not view these guarantees as a “carte blanche” for Ukraine, emphasizing the balance between support and political compromises.
According to a senior US official, the proposal involves the conclusion of three separate agreements - on peace, security guarantees and the reconstruction of Ukraine. Negotiations on a post-war economic package and reconstruction assistance, according to the source, are progressing positively. At the same time, a key condition for ending the war in the current configuration is that Ukraine retains sovereignty over 80% of its territory. “According to the current proposal, the war will end with Ukraine retaining sovereignty over 80% of its territory, receiving the largest and strongest security guarantees it has ever received, and a very significant package of measures to ensure prosperity,” the official said.
Berlin Summit and 20-Point Peace Plan
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Berlin to participate in an international summit with the participation of the United States and European partners dedicated to ending the war and strengthening the security of Ukraine. The central topic of the negotiations will be the framework 20-point peace plan, which Ukraine is discussing in this format for the first time. According to the head of state, the final part of this plan is a ceasefire. Zelensky stressed that even a temporary cessation of hostilities can quickly change the security situation and reduce risks for the civilian population.
The President stressed that Ukraine insists on clear and legally binding security guarantees as a mandatory condition for any ceasefire. He noted that previous experience has proven that without real deterrence mechanisms, Russia is capable of resorting to aggression again after a pause. Special attention at the summit will be paid to consultations with the United States on possible guarantees similar to NATO's fifth article. It is fundamentally important for Ukraine to understand the format of the US reaction in the event of new aggression and the presence of support for such obligations from Congress.
Zelensky: “Russia will compromise only under pressure from the US”
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said, that Russia can agree to compromises on ending the war only under active pressure from the US and its partners. According to him, there is currently no direct dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow. Communication regarding the signals and positions of the Russian side takes place through American partners. It is the US, as the president noted, that informs Ukraine about the demands, steps and Russia’s readiness or unwillingness to compromise.
Zelensky stressed that Ukraine has already made significant concessions on the issue of security guarantees, in particular regarding NATO membership. He emphasized that the desire to join the Alliance was the most reliable security model for Ukraine, but did not receive support from some partners. “Ukrainian desire is NATO membership. These were real security guarantees… And this is a compromise on our part,” the president said. Instead, Ukraine is considering bilateral security guarantees with the US and European countries as an alternative mechanism for deterring new aggression.
The US signals possible progress in peace talks, – Reuters
The US and Ukrainian delegations are holding intensive talks on ways to end the war after almost four years of full-scale Russian invasion. This weekend, Germany is hosting representatives of the US and Ukraine on the eve of an international summit in Berlin. According to Reuters, the talks are taking place against the backdrop of consultations with European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky. Washington believes that the current stage could open a window of opportunity for progress.
According to a US official, Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are going to Germany. "The decision to send Witkoff, who led negotiations with Ukraine and Russia on the US peace proposal, appears to be a signal that Washington sees a chance for progress after almost four years of war since Russia invaded in 2022," Reuters writes. At the same time, Kyiv continues to resist initiatives that involve the transfer of territory, restrictions on armed forces or the rejection of the course towards NATO. European leaders, including in Britain, France and Germany, are working in parallel to finalize the US proposals.
US plan allows Ukraine to join the EU in 2027, - AFP
An updated version of the US plan for the settlement of the war envisages the possible entry of Ukraine into the European Union as early as January 2027. This was reported by AFP citing a senior official familiar with the details of the document. The idea of accelerated European integration is contained in the latest version of the plan prepared by the United States. It is considered one of the key elements of the future political and economic order of Ukraine after the war.
At the same time, according to AFP, this same document also provides for territorial concessions in favor of Russia, which has sparked active diplomatic discussions in Europe. “This is spelled out there, but it is a subject of negotiations, and the Americans support it,” the official said on condition of anonymity. Full details of the plan have not yet been made public, but they are expected to be the subject of discussion during Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Berlin. It is there that consultations on the further fate of the American initiative are to continue.
Author: Danylo Pievchev