Russia’s war against Ukraine has not yet ended, and already the Middle East is engulfed in events that have become the largest regional conflict of this century. A Ukrainian social media user posted two photos: Shahed drones striking residential buildings in Dubai and in Kharkiv on the very same day. The caption noted that just a few days earlier, no one could have imagined that Shaheds would be attacking these two cities simultaneously.
Indeed, when we think about strikes on Iran, we must remember that this is a country that has remained Russia’s most loyal ally throughout this time. It supplied Russia with Shahed drones in the early period of the war and helped localize their production on Russian territory. On the hands of the slain Ayatollah Khamenei lies not only the blood of his own compatriots who fought against his brutal regime. Not only the blood of Israelis killed in Iranian attacks. But also the blood of Ukrainians.
Therefore, a swift defeat of the Iranian regime and a demonstration of Russia’s inability to assist yet another of its allies — following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad and Nicolás Maduro — would be in Ukraine’s interest. The real concern arises if the war drags on.
In that case, there will be numerous negative consequences. The first is already visible in the economic sphere: rising oil prices. For Americans, this means higher fuel prices — and consequently higher prices for everything — as well as reduced purchasing power. For Putin, however, it provides yet another opportunity to partially plug the “hole” in Russia’s state budget. Thus, the Russian president has a vested interest in this new war lasting as long as possible.
The second risk is related to weapons, particularly air defense systems. It seems that no one anticipated such a large-scale Iranian attack on the Persian Gulf countries. These strikes may be aimed at disabling U.S. military facilities in those states, but in reality, Tehran is also targeting hotels and civilian airports. This strongly resembles the Russian approach: if I lose the civilizational competition, I must destroy my neighbors’ model of success and development. And it is obvious that if the Iranian regime survives, even in a weakened state, there will be many claimants for air defense systems and anti-missile capabilities — precisely at a time when Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine.
The third risk is the further escalation and expansion of conflicts. Many may believe that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are unrelated to the Russian-Ukrainian war and would have occurred even if that war had never happened. But such views reflect a misunderstanding of how profoundly Russia’s war against Ukraine has affected the global atmosphere and the willingness and ability to resolve conflicts through diplomacy. If we speak of a total confrontation between “two worlds,” we must understand that when one section of this broader front reaches a deadlock, there arises a need to disrupt the balance elsewhere. And so it can continue — all the way to a global war. Or to a war in which the number of local conflicts, in their intensity and consequences, approaches those of a Third World War.
We cannot influence the timeline of a war with Iran. But we can and must do everything possible to ensure that, amid such a large-scale conflict, Russia’s war against Ukraine does not slip to the periphery of political interest — of politicians’ attention and media coverage. We must continue to remind the world of this war and its connection to the conflict in the Middle East, as, for example, German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized when he stated that “Russia’s war against Ukraine is no less unjust than the crimes of the Iranian regime, and Moscow’s invasion of a peaceful neighboring country is just as unjustified as the terrorist war that Tehran has been waging against Israel for many years.” and Moscow’s invasion of a peaceful neighboring country is just as unjustified as the terrorist war that Tehran has been waging against Israel for many years.”
This is precisely what we must all remember — and continue to speak about.
Author: Vitaly Portnikov
