Russia continues massive air strikes against Ukraine, and Kyiv has experienced one of its most difficult nights with numerous civilian casualties. At the same time, Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure are increasingly affecting daily life in the Russian Federation, where gas stations are being closed and restrictions on the sale of gasoline are being imposed. Poland is preparing for the risk of possible hybrid provocations from Russia, and European societies are doubting whether they will be able to defend themselves without the United States.
Russia launched a massive attack on Kyiv: 30 people died
On July 2, Russia carried out a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv, which lasted about 11 hours. According to the State Emergency Service, as of July 3, 30 people were killed in the capital, and more than 90 were injured. During the air raid, more than 50,000 people took shelter in metro stations, including nearly 4,500 children. More than 30 locations in the city were damaged, including about 20 residential buildings.
In the Desnyanskyi district, people were trapped in a damaged nine-story building, and in the Darnytskyi district, most of another nine-story building collapsed. Kyiv resident Serhiy Budko reported that three or four ballistic missiles had hit his district:
“We were inside the shelter and felt it shaking – the ceiling and the floor, everything.”
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a 7-year-old girl was killed in a Russian strike, and four other members of her family, including an 11-year-old child, were injured. The air force said Russia had fired 74 missiles and 496 drones, while Ukrainian officials again called on partners to provide more Patriot systems.
Europeans doubt their ability to defend themselves
EU citizens increasingly want to rely on European defense rather than U.S. military aid, but they are unsure about Europe’s ability to guarantee their own security, according to a Public First survey conducted in June in 24 EU countries. According to the results, 40% of respondents consider it acceptable to rely on European military aid, while only 14% are ready to accept support from countries outside the continent, including the United States. At the same time, 41% of those surveyed believe that Europe is ready to defend them, while 43% are convinced of the opposite.
Regarding the defense capabilities of their own states, 58% of respondents said that their country is not ready for self-defense, while 27% consider it ready.
“Europeans feel less secure and see the US as less reliable. Whether this translates into a willingness to make some of the hard trade-offs that a more autonomous European defence would entail – including the need for greater investment that would not necessarily be directed at businesses in their own country – remains an open question,” said Public First director Anand Menon.
The Baltic states, Romania and Bulgaria were the most skeptical about their ability to defend themselves without external assistance, while in Finland 76% of respondents were confident in their country’s readiness to defend itself. In 18 countries, a majority of respondents said their countries could rely on Europe to provide sufficient military power in the event of an attack.
Russia’s fuel shortages increase pressure on Putin
Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have caused a massive fuel shortage in Russia and created a new political challenge for Putin. According to the former head of strategy at Gazprom Neft, Sergei Vakulenko, as of June 20, about 28% of Russia’s oil refining capacity was not operating. Ukrainian drones and missiles have been hitting refineries, including in Tyumen, and on June 18, the main Moscow refinery was destroyed.
“All this is due to a sharp increase in the number of drones that Ukraine can launch,” Vakulenko said, adding that the problem already lies in the physical shortage of fuel.
The Kremlin said that Russia is considering importing fuel for the first time in a decade and may also ban the export of diesel. In Moscow, some gas stations have closed, and those that are open have formed long queues, while in Siberia and the North Caucasus, drivers have to wait all night. In some regions, they have banned the use of canisters, limited the volume of fuel sales, and in Crimea, its sale to civilians has been stopped altogether. Putin acknowledged the problem:
“Problems for motorists and businesses remain. Unfortunately, there are queues at gas stations, and sometimes it is impossible to find the right brand of gasoline,” he said.
The US warned Poland about a possible Russian provocation
The US has warned Poland about a possible armed provocation by Russia on the territory of the country, which may be aimed at testing NATO’s response. According to The Telegraph, Moscow may attack critical infrastructure in Poland with missiles or drones, as well as try to transfer a small group of troops across the Alliance’s eastern border. The Polish publication Onet reported that Washington has repeatedly informed Warsaw about a possible scenario for such an operation. Sources suggest that it could be implemented in the coming months.
Possible scenarios include a drone strike on power plants, simulated air strikes, or a “hybrid attack in the border area” involving Russian or Belarusian troops. Russia could present the incursion into Polish territory as an accident due to a GPS malfunction or as an alleged evacuation operation for a malfunctioning helicopter. According to sources, Moscow expects that Poland will not use force, and the allies will be forced to negotiate. One of Russia’s demands in this case could be the cessation of Western support for Ukraine in exchange for the withdrawal of troops from Poland.
The political review is based on a personal special issue of VM resident Orest Deychakivsky.
Photo: slovoidilo.ua
Author: Danylo Pievchev