In seven key states — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan — Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are nearly tied, each polling around 50:50. Recently, Trump has gained some momentum, while Harris has lost a bit of her earlier decisive lead.
Right or Left?
After the Republicans rejected the only centrist alternative to Trump — Nikki Haley — in the primaries, and the Democrats found no one other than the current Vice President with a left-leaning stance, Kamala Harris, U.S. voters have found themselves at a sharp crossroads. Both candidates are steering their policies more toward extremes — right or left — rather than towards reasonable centrism. Extremes always carry the risk of instability, while sensible centrism ensures the stability of a political system.
Thus, the decision on the future sharp turn in the politics of the world's most influential country will likely be made within the margin of error.
The extremes in the economic and social programs of both presidential candidates, along with the layered complexity of the main political issues of the current election, place each voter — especially in the "swing" states — before a multifaceted, contradictory choice. Each candidate has strengths in certain areas, but also brings significant risks.
Trump will "make America great again" and defeat internal enemies
Trump's voters are drawn either to his economic program, which promises lower taxes and significantly reduced government regulation of business, or to his fiery calls to end illegal immigration, or to his support for Israel (a legacy of his first term: he moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, officially recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and secured the "Abraham Accords" between Israel and some Arab countries).
Many of Trump's supporters justify their choice with the fear that Harris's economic and social program is too "left-wing."
"Harris's economic plans focus on government handouts and state control. What other candidate supports spending billions of taxpayer dollars on down payments for first-time homebuyers? Not even the Obama administration did that," says Nicole Russell, a columnist for USA Today (hardly a conservative publication, more nonpartisan) from Texas.
She also notes that vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, passed state laws that "allow virtually unrestricted abortions, make Minnesota a sanctuary state for transgender youth, and expand opportunities for undocumented immigrants to obtain driver's licenses."
These and other "progressive ideas" implemented within the Democratic Party, according to Russell, "over the past few decades," may alienate not only conservative voters from Harris but also "some who usually support Democrats." Russell hopes that Trump (if he wins) will introduce tax cuts, reject student loan debt cancellation, and strengthen border security with Mexico.
However, Trump's voters clearly underestimate his ability to shake up the U.S. political system, sow distrust in key democratic institutions, including the election system itself, and stoke divisions within American society.
For instance, Trump stubbornly repeats that America's "internal enemies" are "scarier than Russia and China"; by "internal enemies," he means "Marxists, communists, and fascists," essentially lumping together all Democrats, as well as anyone who disagrees with him, particularly those who have brought charges against him for various reasons.
He frequently claims that the entire judiciary and intelligence community are "entirely corrupt" and "serve as weapons of the left," primarily against him, the ardent patriot and defender of the American people. In his view, the U.S. is no different from dictatorial countries, and thus, he has the right, even the duty, in his own words, to "become a dictator from day one" and fundamentally reform the U.S. according to his vision.
What might happen to such vital institutions as intelligence agencies, the judiciary, and various social services, which Trump threatens to "reset" on his own terms, is anyone's guess. And what could result from Trump's flirtations with Putin and his absurd claims regarding the war against Ukraine? Could he, as president, repeat the infamous experience of the 1938 Munich Agreement? Even Trump's economic policy supporters underestimate his plans to introduce trade wars because, as he repeatedly asserts, nearly all countries are "cheating America."
However, in the end, consumers pay the price for trade wars and unwarranted tariffs, and the U.S. budget deficit will only grow. Finally, among Trump voters, there's a subset who believe in obvious nonsense, such as the unverified claims during devastating hurricanes that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) deliberately withholds necessary resources from affected Republican states or that the agency gives the bulk of resources to "illegal migrants." (These rumors even led to attacks on FEMA workers, forcing the agency to temporarily suspend operations in some areas of North Carolina).
Harris will support the Middle Class
On the other hand, Kamala Harris's supporters include a spectrum ranging from the far left to a wing of centrist Republicans led by Liz Cheney (the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, a U.S. Senator, Liz Cheney joined Democrats in impeaching Trump for inciting his supporters to storm the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and has since been a harsh critic of Trump); many of these Republicans supported Nikki Haley until she withdrew from the primaries. Harris’s voters value her commitment to playing fairly by the rules, without breaking the U.S. political system. However, it remains to be seen which wing Harris will lean toward. The far-left wing favors extensive government financial support for the middle class and state management of the economy, while advocating for expanded abortion rights in the social sphere and greater support for Palestinians at the expense of reduced support for Israel, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East.
A сomplex, сontradictory сhoice
These elections are perhaps the most complex in U.S. history, mainly due to the fact that the candidates for the highest office are so contradictory.
How will centrists, especially non-Trump Republicans, respond to Harris’s economic and social programs?
Will Harris manage to find a golden middle ground between the left and the centrists?
Will her proposed measures destabilize the U.S. economy, which is already on the brink of crisis (evidenced by the relentless rise in prices despite all efforts to curb inflation)?
Ultimately, the candidates' chances are nearly even, adding to the uncertainty. Who will have a greater influence on the election outcome — the supporters of social-democratic policies or the advocates of sharp corporate tax cuts, high tariffs, and potential trade wars?
Supporters of Israel (not just Jews, but also Protestants!) or its fierce critics?
Those who believe in the victory of global democracy, and thus, in Ukraine, since it is at the epicenter of this global battle, or isolationist skeptics who reject this civilizational divide?
There are "eccentrics" on both sides who believe in nonsense and pull both parties beyond the bounds of common sense. However, the majority in both parties remain grounded in reason, which may pull both candidates slightly toward the center. Thus, it is not surprising that a significant number of voters (according to recent polls, 10-15%) are still undecided. Every vote will count, and the future of the world's most powerful country depends on each voter using common sense. In this scenario, the elections to Congress (both houses), governors, and state and local leadership become extremely important. Only with the right selection of these representatives can Congress and state and city leaders act as a counterbalance to the White House, which, under any candidate, will lean toward either the right or left.
Author: Nadiya Banchyk