Vladimir Putin appears increasingly confident that Russia will ultimately prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine as Moscow wages a bloody summer offensive. Just as Putin claimed in his 2021 essay that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and that Ukraine’s sovereignty hinges on Moscow’s approval, he reiterated in late June: “I’ve said it before, Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours. There’s an old rule that wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.” As Moskovsky Komsomolets noted, that phrase captured the essence of Putin’s “political faith and long-term strategy.”
US President Donald Trump has been repeatedly disregarded by the Kremlin, despite issuing vague ultimatums – often invoking his signature"two-week" timeline, which has yielded no tangible results. This isn’t “peace through strength,” but rather “weakness through appeasement” that Trump has been demonstrating with Russia.
The Trump administration has resorted to engaging with the Lukashenka regime in Minsk, hoping to revive any momentum with peace talks. To Trump’s credit, he did finally get both sides to start talking to each other. But the message in the meetings from the Russians has been that they are intent on finishing this war and subjugating Ukraine. Vladimir Medinsky, Putin’s aide leading the delegation, said, “We’re prepared to fight forever.”
However, Moscow continues to distance itself from peace negotiations, instead doubling down on its goal of fully subjugating Ukraine. Russia has nearly 700,000 troops inside of Ukraine to support Moscow’s battlefield aims. Since January 2024, Russia has achieved less than 1% of Ukrainian territory despite suffering record post-WWII losses.
Russia has recently opened a new front in Sumy, likely tied to its rhetoric about establishing abuffer zone following Ukraine’s surprise 2024 incursion into Kursk. The Institute for the Study of War stated that the Kremlin is also using the pretext of "buffer zones" to justify expanding Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine.
On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow’s main objective. This is reflected by Russia’s decision to deploy its top drone units to the area.
Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered heavy losses. Recent reportedly reveal increasing numbers of Russians voluntarily surrendering to Ukrainians, likely viewing Ukrainian captivity as a better place to be than sent to the meatgrinder to die by their commanders. Russian soldiers have been openly commenting on Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly “like Jews in Iran,” are without fear and far more accurate than before.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has watched its key ally, Iran, face relentless humiliation, doing nothing to defend it. Instead, Moscow has pointed to the fine print of previous agreements to avoid stepping in and to prevent “inflated expectations” of Russian support. Still, Russia stands to benefited from the surge in oil prices triggered by market turmoil after Israel launched its bombing campaign.
Throughout 2025, Ukraine worked on strengthening its expanding “drone wall” to contain Russia’s constant meatgrinder assaults. Good mining, digging new trenches that aren’t in open fields and scaling drone production will be key to sustaining the drone wall. This drone wall should continue to evolve into a technological shield to increase the rate of Russian losses and drive down Ukrainian losses.
As a result, it has led to the Russians evolving their tactics and how they attempt to probe Ukrainian lines. In Mad Max fashion, the primary vehicle of choice for Russia has become the motorcycle, or the 21st-Century Dragoon. A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone. Most of the motorcycles used are Chinese-made, such as the Sharmax Sport 280, and are sourced through a mix of state procurement, volunteer networks, and personal purchases.
This tactic is costly but calculated. Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian soldier and communications specialist, notes that even if just one in five motorcycle assaults succeeds, the enemy is willing to expend all that human life to sustain its offensives. “These motor-assault units move fast. Our drone operators and artillery have less time to react,” wrote Solonko.
However, Kyiv has recently made critical mistakes that make its drone wall vulnerable. In Russia’s latest offensive near Sumy, Ukraine failed to establish proper fortifications – a recurring issue throughout the war. Without adequate defenses and mining, Russian forces can advance more quickly and make it harder for Ukrainian defenders. Russian KAB guided bombs continue to strike Ukrainian positions at the same rate as they did a year ago.
Russia claims that 65% of Ukrainian losses occur during troop rotations or resupply, and 35% on the front line. Fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drones make any surface movement within 20km of the front extremely dangerous. However, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, highlighted that Russia is ahead in the fiber-optic drone race “in terms of both quantity and range of application.”
The Russians are betting on scale, believing that sheer mass and the full mobilization of state resources will ultimately secure victory. The China-Iran-Russia axis is accelerating Russia’s technological advancement, with its partnership with Iran enabling the domestic production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Chinese companies and the supplies that they provide are a key reason why Russia can sustain its war.
Russia’s Kalashnikov has also partnered with Ushkuynik, a volunteer-run tech accelerator that developed the country’s first fiber-optic drone, to jointly produce drones. The deal reflects a broader shift in Russia’s defense industry toward integrating fast-moving, frontline-tested innovations from startups into mass production, as Moscow pushes for quicker development-to-deployment cycles. In essence, Russia is learning important lessons from the war.
“While Russia benefits from its ongoing relationship with Iran and China, Ukraine has also demonstrated that it can use its domestic and allied tech to press the Russians in return,” said Samuel Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
Moscow’s war effort leans heavily on its partnership with China, which supplies about 80 percent of the world’s fiber-optic components. “Russia isn’t technically ahead, both sides are ordering the same parts from the same Chinese suppliers,” said Heiner Philipp, an engineer with Technology United for Ukraine.
These wired drones were a key factor in Russia’s success in Kursk. Now, the same strategy is being employed across the front in Ukraine: launch quick assaults using motorcycles, pressure Ukrainian flanks, attempt to encircle defenders, and use fiber-optic drones to target incoming Ukrainian logistics and vehicles.
Entire forest lines are now covered in fiber-optic wires. Now even drones have become effective "anti-sniper" tools, targeting individuals with high-value equipment like snipers and ATGM operators.
As a result of these drone attacks, Ukraine faces an acute shortage of trucks, pickups, and armored transport, which are increasingly destroyed by drones. Volunteer groups and charities have stepped in to supply thousands of vehicles, but demand far outpaces supply.
The most practical solution has become to focus efforts on eliminating Russian drone pilots. Disrupting drone operations weakens Russian assaults and interferes with enemy command and control.
Ukraine’s new Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, “Madyar,” prioritizes targeting these operators, awarding 25 points for a kill – more than for tanks or regular soldiers. Units can trade verified kills for drones and equipment through an online marketplace. Russian sources confirmed that under the revised points system, attacks on drone crews, especially fiber-optic FPV operators have intensified. Pilots are being urged to deploy decoy antennas on the front.
Despite claiming neutrality and supporting peace talks, China is deepening military cooperation with Russia. Ukrainian intelligence According that Moscow will host around 600 Chinese military personnel in 2025 to train at Russian bases, learning from Russia’s battlefield experience and focusing on countering Western weaponry. Reuters also previously reported that Chinese military officers have been in Russia, learning from the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is now also bringing in 25,000 North Korean industrial workers to staff drone production lines in Tatarstan, in addition to the thousands of troops that have been fighting in Kursk.
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army Major-General stated, “The Russians have a significant advantage over Ukraine in their ability to recruit soldiers, generate forces and replace their casualties.” Both sides are looking abroad to recruit more soldiers.
But not all is going well for Russian forces, which increasingly rely on recruits driven by the promise of cash bonuses – if they survive. In one gruesome example, leaked audio from Ukraine’s military intelligence alleges that a Russian soldier killed and ate his comrade.
As long as the West assumes Russia is merely seeking land under the guise of exaggerated security concerns, it will fail to grasp the deeper threat. Moscow is prepared to fight to the end in pursuit of restoring its imperial past, dragging the world backward in the process. In a recent broadcast, one Russian military official openly discussed plans to attack NATO over alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in the Baltics and to capture Kharkiv by 2030.
But Russia can’t fight on forever and the cracks are growing. The country’s own economy minister recently admitted that Russia is on the brink of recession, as surging war spending collides with inflation, labor shortages, and tight monetary policy.
If Trump were to apply real economic pressure, he might break Moscow’s resolve and bring it to the negotiating table. Until then, Russia believes it holds the upper hand and will continue preparing to challenge Europe in a future war.
With little to offer its people for the future, the Kremlin instead sells a vision of returning to the supposed glory days of the Russian Empire.
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