Intelligence vs. Political Statements: War Continues Without a Shared Vision for Peace

The international agenda around Ukraine has been filled with new statements from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow. The United States has sounded mutually exclusive signals regarding assessments of the Russian leadership’s goals. Ukraine, on the other hand, is focused on diplomatic work with partners and responding to threats that affect Europe’s defense capabilities and security.

The head of the US National Intelligence Service denied Reuters’ material on Russia’s plans for Ukraine

The Director of the US Office of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, publicly denied Reuters’ information that the Kremlin’s military goals for Ukraine have remained unchanged during four years of full-scale war. She made her position public in X, sharply criticizing both the material itself and the sources cited by the media. According to Gabbard, such publications are allegedly aimed at undermining the peace initiatives of the current US administration. She accused parts of the American establishment and the media of deliberately exacerbating the rhetoric surrounding the war.

In her post, Gabbard stated that American intelligence does not share the claims about Russia’s ability to seize Ukraine or, even more so, invade European countries. At the same time, the Reuters article gives opposing assessments, citing sources in the US intelligence community. “American intelligence continues to warn about the intentions of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to seize all of Ukraine and return parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire,” the agency’s interlocutors note. Thus, the public statement of the head of the National Intelligence Service came into direct contradiction with the leaks that previously appeared in the Western media.

Zelensky on air defense, negotiations with the US and vision of key issues of the war

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saidduring a conversation with journalists that international partners have begun to “hold” missiles for Ukrainian air defense systems. According to him, Ukraine is currently not receiving the full volume of air defense missiles that are necessary to protect the sky. “Partners have begun to hold back air defense missiles a little and we still cannot receive the full volume that we need,” the head of state noted. He called the reason for this situation Russia’s intimidation of European countries, in particular through drone flights over many European countries, which forces partners to keep missiles for their own defense on the eve of winter.

Zelenskyy also also reported, that the US has proposed holding a trilateral meeting at the level of national security advisors between Ukraine, the US and Russia. “America is now proposing a trilateral meeting of the NSA America-Ukraine-Russia,” the president said, noting that similar formats have already been used before, in particular in Turkey. At the same time, he expressed doubts about the possibility of achieving fundamentally new results, although he emphasized the importance of the exchanges. 

In addition, Zelensky said, that Ukraine has already conveyed to the United States its vision regarding the territories, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and financing for restoration: “The most difficult issues were and remain – the territory of Ukraine, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The third issue is money for restoration,” adding that the American side will continue to communicate with Russia, and consultations between the Ukrainian and American groups are ongoing, including in Florida.

American intelligence says that Putin’s military goals have not changed – Reuters

American intelligence continues to believe that the Kremlin’s military goals regarding Ukraine have remained unchanged since the start of the full-scale invasion. This was reported by Reuters citing six sources familiar with the assessments of the US intelligence community. According to them, Putin has not abandoned his intentions to completely seize Ukraine. The most recent analytical reports, according to one source, date back to late September.

Reuters notes that these conclusions contradict public statements by US President Donald Trump and his negotiators, who speak of the Kremlin's desire to end the war. They also do not coincide with Putin's own statements about the absence of a threat to Europe. 

"American intelligence agencies continue to warn about the intentions of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to seize all of Ukraine and return parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire," the sources said. The White House representative limited himself to commenting on "significant progress" in efforts to end the war.

Zelensky said that consultations with a wide range of European partners are needed

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on a conversation with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, during which the parties discussed current diplomatic work. The head of state wrote about this on his Telegram-channel. He stressed that the Ukrainian team is actively working with the American side, in particular in Florida. European representatives were also involved in these consultations.

Zelensky noted that despite diplomatic efforts, signals from Russia remain negative. This includes continued assaults on the front, attacks on infrastructure, and war crimes in border regions. The President thanked Norway for its support for Ukraine, in particular in terms of pressure on Moscow, reconstruction, and energy sustainability. He added that after the current stage of work with the United States was completed, there was a need for consultations with an even wider range of European partners. 

Kremlin calls trilateral meeting of US, Ukraine, Russia idea frivolous

Moscow has reacted negatively to a proposal for a trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the US, and Russia at the level of national security advisers. The Russian dictator's aide Yuri Ushakov said, that such an idea is "frivolous" and is not currently being considered. According to him, the relevant format of negotiations is not being worked out by the Russian side at all. He also claims that Moscow has not seen any official documents from the US regarding a peaceful settlement.

In addition, Ushakov criticized the proposals of Ukraine and European partners, stating that they allegedly hinder the achievement of "long-term peace." These statements were made against the background of President Volodymyr Zelensky's words about the initiative of the American side to hold a meeting in the NSA format. Zelensky previously emphasized that Kyiv supports such an idea. Thus, the parties' positions on possible negotiations remain radically opposite.

Photo: vin.gov.ua

Author: Danylo Pievchev

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