This text was originally meant to be written immediately after the meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine in the Oval Office. At first glance, it seemed like just another routine step — one of thousands needed to achieve a just peace. Yet it turned out to be a turning point, awakening genuine anxiety in millions of people who are now worried about the future of the entire civilized world.
Never before has America appeared so vulnerable, nor the world so close to complete destabilization. The Oval Office in Washington currently serves as the epicenter of seismic shifts that foreshadow economic volcanoes and political tsunamis. Events are unfolding rapidly, accompanied by contradictory statements, so without reliable inside information, it takes more than a day to piece together, from small communicative and media details, some more or less solid conclusions and to answer the question: how does the new, super-secret group of President Trump’s trusted associates operate, and what are their real motives?
No strategy in sight
The communication strategy of Donald Trump’s new Administration is based on rapid, hype-driven decisions, superficial assessments, a cult of personality, and manipulation. This set of intense short-term quasi-effects — not to mention the recurring shock it elicits from a wide circle of global leaders — provokes noticeable cracks in the foundation of American democratic institutions themselves, which have been the bedrock of the superpower’s stability for many decades.
Within Trump’s team, there appear to be no long-term strategic plans. Everything is decided swiftly, most likely under the influence of random external triggers. The “Brownian motion” surrounding the U.S. President seems logically to be his deliberate initiative. I suppose he loves precisely this model of managing subordinates, one that creates a constant need for them to compete with each other, rules out the possibility of forming stable and influential internal groups or alliances, eliminates potential other beneficiaries, and — most importantly — places everyone at least one rung below Trump himself. This management model gives him certain advantages: no one can predict his decisions in advance, and therefore no one can properly prepare for them.
Trump communicates with his team members primarily through cynical and manipulative methods. This does not necessarily imply some malicious conspiracy: he simply views putting people in a position of dependence on him (without seeking stable alliances) as the most effective way to manage. One day you’re in favor, the next you’re out. If it’s a good day, you might be reinstated to your “favorite” position the day after tomorrow. Is there a logic to this? For him, yes. It creates constant competition and fuels subordinates’ fears — chiefly fear of unpredictability. Each subordinate realizes that they can easily lose access to the president or become the “fall guy” at an inconvenient moment. So they compete with one another rather than argue with the boss.
Role-playing games
Each of the main figures on the team has their own distinct specialization. For example, Elon Musk (“the scandalist”) quite consciously takes on public insults and is not afraid to articulate unpopular opinions that the President wants to avoid. When this “sponge” soaks up too much negativity and criticism, he’ll simply be sent back to his businesses—and that might happen rather quickly. Vice President Vance (“the provocateur”) plays the role of the loyal “fan number one,” who will, without hesitation, “tear into” anyone who criticizes Trump, doing so as long as necessary on his path to his own presidency. Through him, Donald Trump sets an example for others: it’s not necessary to be competent or principled, because loyalty is the key criterion in this game.
However, such a system works effectively only in the early stages. In times of great crisis or serious challenges, it usually turns out that the needed decisions suddenly cannot be generated, and the plans remain unformed. No one is willing to take responsibility, and the President risks being left a “naked king” without a court. Any team that comes to power through extreme populism, scandals, loud promises, and an electrified electorate has very little time to accomplish all it has planned. Today, Donald Trump, at a frantic pace, churns out decisions and executive orders (some of which must later be rescinded), rushed appointments, and unexpected statements. Time is short—various checks and balances will become more active as days go by. That is why people sometimes act unsynchronized, broadcasting diametrically opposed views that then have to be mutually refuted.
Yet, observing the overall fairly coherent communication work of the American President’s Administration, one can clearly see the formation of an authoritarian vertical. A leader who wields absolute power is surrounded by those who unconditionally affirm his every word or decision. This is precisely how religious preachers operate, whose “revelations” must be immediately and unconditionally approved. That is why Donald Trump’s main speeches are accompanied by parallel statements from high-ranking officials who, instead of offering reason, echo “hosannas.” Such a system typically functions in authoritarian regimes. Intelligence officers from the KGB/FSB are well acquainted with such technological models.
Yes, He Doesn’t Delve into Details
At times, it may seem that Trump speaks as if he possesses special techniques, wanting to “cloud the issue” and confuse opponents. But from small details, it becomes clear that he simply does not dive into specifics. This was also evident during the election campaign—he operated with prepared facts without delving into details, exposing himself to devastating criticism and accusations of lying. However, now that Donald Trump is determining the fate of hundreds of millions of people, a dangerous trend is emerging: he does not delve into the essence of many issues and, frankly, does not worry much about it, relying instead on a narrow circle of advisors. As a result, decisions are made either emotionally or influenced by those who at a given moment manage to “get through” to him and receive presidential approval.
Ukraine, for Donald Trump, is likely not of interest at all. Worse yet, it irritates him because it reminds him of an “endless war,” which he neither understands nor cares to study. He has no obvious solutions that would force Putin to stop, and he is not prepared to publicly acknowledge this inability. That is why the show in the Oval Office with President Zelensky was so meticulously planned—to provoke an emotional response by criticizing his attire, goading him with unfair remarks, picking a fight, accusing him of ingratitude, and then dismissing him in disgrace. Why Zelensky was not prepared for various developments or allowed himself to be drawn into this trap is a question—albeit pertinent—that does not relate directly to the current topic. What matters is that it was precisely on Zelensky that Trump’s communications team managed to pin the blame for the absence of a solution to end the war in Ukraine. It’s also important to note that such harsh treatment of Ukraine is aimed solely at continuously reassuring the Russians, including Putin, of Trump’s friendly intentions.
At a Crossroads
The greatest tragedy today is the undermining of the value system and geopolitical foundation that the United States so painstakingly and persistently built for almost a century: democracy, human rights, and a culture of assistance (USAID, “soft power”) are being visibly devalued. Along with the rolling back of programs and the abandonment of previous obligations, the authority of the United States in the world is eroding.
“Ignorance and arrogance” are two traits now attributed to Washington with increasing frequency. Worst of all, it is among America’s allies that a sense is growing that the United States can no longer be relied upon, while among its opponents, hopes are strengthening for success in a game against a weakened America.
An ever-widening group of people is beginning to doubt that America is so strong that it cannot be undermined from within. Today, a threat hangs in the air: at least half of society categorically disagrees with how the American President and his circle are acting. Insiders within the Democrats say they can now unite more powerfully than ever. Insiders among Republicans reveal at least a third who also do not wish to play along with “authoritarianism.” The worst-case scenario is that this conflict could escalate into an internal split, and Russian special services are already actively working toward that end right on U.S. soil: turning the United States into a “geopolitical dwarf” is the main plan that has been nurtured for decades in Kremlin offices and is now closer to realization than ever before.
Yes, never before has America looked so vulnerable. Still, American democratic institutions remain immensely strong and stand ready to demonstrate their resilience. The only question is at what cost—both for Ukraine, for the United States itself, and for the rest of the world—this will happen. We are at the very beginning of this head-spinning story, and its finale depends on Americans’ ability to return to their traditional values at the right moment and say “stop” to the destructive trends.
Author: Lukian Selskyi