After the meeting between American and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia and the agreements on a 30-day ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front, many leaders—both in the United States and Europe—began saying that the “ball is now in Russia’s court.” In other words, Vladimir Putin must decide his position regarding the truce.
However, this rhetoric only highlights the distorted logic of events after Donald Trump became the American president. An obvious question arises: where was this “ball” before the Ukrainian-American negotiations in Saudi Arabia? Could it really have been on Ukraine’s side?
Who is the aggressor?
Let us recall the obvious: it was Russia that attacked Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. It was Russia that decided to annex Ukrainian territories. It is Russian troops that remain on Ukrainian soil. Russia considers the occupied territories its own property and denies Ukraine’s sovereignty over them. So was the “ball” really anywhere but on Russia’s side?
In reality, the claim that Ukraine must make certain steps toward Russia emerged after Vladimir Putin openly rejected Trump’s idea of a ceasefire. Since then, Russian officials have repeatedly stated that they are interested not just in a truce, but in a “lasting peace”—by which Moscow means Ukraine’s capitulation and concessions from the West.
To understand what the Kremlin really wants, one need only recall its ultimatums to the United States at the end of 2021. For Ukraine, these demands were formulated with absolute clarity:
- Recognize the occupied territories as Russian.
- Provide conditions for the activities of pro-Russian political forces.
- Abandon Euro-Atlantic integration.
- Reduce the size of the army and cease receiving military aid from the West.
Pressure not on Putin, but on Ukraine
Instead of increasing pressure on Putin, Trump chose a different path—pressure on Zelensky. Thus arose the idea of a deal on the extraction of natural resources in Ukraine, which the American president now barely mentions. This also led to the scandal during Zelensky’s visit to the White House and the suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing.
However, the White House was nevertheless forced to return to supporting Ukraine. Despite Trump’s attempts to portray this as a result of diplomacy, in reality the United States simply cannot afford to lose its leverage over Putin. Military assistance to Ukraine is not only a matter of Kyiv’s security, but also the only real tool Washington has to influence the Kremlin.
In truth, Trump is just as interested in supporting Ukraine as Zelensky is—he simply cannot publicly admit it. Therefore, he continues his manipulations, attempting to create the impression that it is supposedly Ukraine that refuses peace, while Russia is striving for it.
Putin and the ‘Ceasefire’
Predictably, Putin responded to the idea of a ceasefire in his usual manner: he did not outright reject the proposal, but he introduced a condition—Ukraine’s “demilitarization.” For Moscow, any truce primarily means weakening Ukraine: halting mobilization, reducing military aid, in other words preparing for the next stage of the war.
Meanwhile, Russia will continue to recruit soldiers, ramp up military production, and wait for the moment when Ukraine becomes weaker so it can deliver another blow.
Humiliating Trump in Moscow
A real indicator of the Kremlin’s attitude toward Trump’s “peace initiatives” was the visit of his representative, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow. The Russians made him wait for eight hours in Putin’s reception area while Putin tended to more “important” matters—namely, meeting with Alexander Lukashenko.
This gesture by the Kremlin means only one thing: if Trump wants his representatives to be received faster, he should behave exactly like the Belarusian ruler.
The Inevitable Choice
Reality is unyielding, and Trump will inevitably have to face it. He has a simple choice:
- Either remain an ally of Ukraine, help it resist aggression, wear Russia down, and prevent it from taking over the entire neighboring country.
- Or become an ally of Putin, help Russia destroy Ukraine, and allow the Kremlin to become Europe’s hegemon.
Refusing to make this choice is impossible. Trump will not be able to “wash his hands” of the matter, as Pontius Pilate once did in a similar situation.
Author: Vitaly Portnikov